CHICAGO WHITE SOX AT MINNESOTA TWINS
- Reynaldo Lopez RHP (0-1, 9.00 ERA)
- Jose Berrios RHP (2-3, 4.75 ERA)
While the Twins are favored in Wednesday’s game, the reality is that the game is going to be a tossup.
Currently the White Sox are in first place in the AL Central, while the Twins are in third place. Wednesday night’s game may seem like a game where the Twins should easily win, but I think that the White Sox will win as a +135 moneyline underdogs.
The reason why the Twins are favored has to do with the starting pitching matchup. The Twins are using a blue-chip starting pitcher Jose Berrios, while the White Sox are relying on an unreliable arm in Reynaldo Lopez. Jose Berrios was one of the best pitchers in the league last year as he had a 14-8 record with a 3.68 ERA.
This season, Berrios has been relatively mediocre as he has a 2-3 record with a 4.75 ERA. In his only start this season against the White Sox, Berrios lasted only four innings giving up five earned runs.
That could conceivably happen again as the White Sox are fifth in the league in team runs per game with an average of 5.26 runs per game.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT COLORADO ROCKIES
- Logan Webb RHP (2-3, 4.35 ERA)
- Kyle Freeland LHP (2-1, 3.43 ERA)
For Wednesday afternoon’s game between the San Francisco Giants and the Colorado Rockies, the oddsmakers have overlooked the Giants. Both teams are virtually tied in the NL West standings, yet the Colorado Rockies are somehow -130 moneyline favorites. Recently the Giants have been playing well and that trend could easily continue.
However, both teams average nearly the same amount of runs per game despite the Rockies playing their home games at the hitter friendly Coors Field.
One reason why I bettors might be hesitant to back the Giants is because of the starting pitching matchup. The starting pitcher for the Rockies Kyle Freeland has done well this year as he has a 2-1 record with a 3.43 ERA. However last season Freeland had a 3-11 record with an ERA of 6.73, and an xFIP of 5.07.
In Freeland’s last start against the Padres, Freeland pitched 4.1 innings giving up 11 hits, and four earned runs. If Freeland continues to regress, then the Rockies cannot win Wednesday’s game.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
- Max Scherzer RHP (3-1, 3.86 ERA)
- Zack Wheeler RHP (3-0, 2.58 ERA)
On paper, Wednesday night’s matchup between the Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies should be a low scoring game. Both teams are using great starting pitchers. The starting pitcher for the Nationals Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in the league.
Opposing Scherzer is Phillies starting pitcher Zach Wheeler who is having a career year. Despite a great starting pitching matchup, I think many runs will be scored. This is because both teams have great lineups and relatively average bullpens.
The Phillies lineup currently scores the third most runs per game in the league with an average of 5.60 runs scored per game. The Nationals are also a good offensive team as they average 4.84 runs per game. If you add both lineups together, both teams combine to average 10.44 runs per game.
I do not believe that five to six innings of Scherzer and Wheeler will be enough to keep the combined run total at eight runs or less. Both bullpens have an xFIP between 4.67 and 4.74. With the quality of hitting between these two teams, an over game is believed to happen.
DETROIT TIGERS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS
- Spencer Turnbull RHP (3-2, 2.97 ERA)
- Adrian Houser RHP (1-3, 4.36 ERA)
While the Brewers undeniably have a better roster than the Tigers, both teams have nearly equal rosters.
This is surprising as the Tigers had the worst record in baseball last season, while the Brewers were a playoff team. However, the 2020 season has been much different as the Brewers have struggled to score runs and many Tigers have exceeded expectations.
The starting pitcher for the Tigers Spencer Turnbull has done well this season with a 3-2 record, and a 2.97 ERA. In Turnbull’s last start against the Chicago Cubs, Turnbull pitched 5.2 scoreless innings. Against a Brewers lineup that scores the 2nd fewest runs per game in the league, I think Turnbull does very well. Opposing Turnbull is Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser.
Recently Houser has done poorly as he has given up between three and four earned runs in each of his last four starts.