he big difference this week in where the value rests is with a few of the popular 0-2 teams that are sitting at cheap prices. The public has been burned two weeks in a row by the Eagles, Colts and Ravens and they’re ready to stick a fork in them forgetting about the reasons they were so high on them coming into the season.
The masses of public bettors are a fickle crew with their own “Zig-Zag Theory” that more times than not zags them out of a winning week. And the books know how to appeal to those public trends and reel them in like an unsuspecting trout. Sharps on the other hand, know the books’ strategy and they take advantage of the numbers that have been over-modified and it’s why you’ll see them usually win when the books do.
The most shocking movement of a team rating from preseason to Week 3 is what has happened with the Eagles, who were bumped up almost three-points after blowing everyone out in the first three exhibition games. But after looking nothing like that preseason offensive monster in losses to Atlanta and Dallas, they’re actually below the rating they started with in the preseason. It’s a rapid adjustment and part of it is to handicap what the public is feeling, and right now they feel the Eagles are phony. They loved Philly the first two weeks, but they hate them now.
On the other side, you’ve got the Jets coming off an impressive win at Indianapolis on Monday night, and they get a bump up in the rating just because that defense figures to give plenty of teams problems all season long.
Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Philadelphia as a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Jets in their early lines. After Monday night’s game, the Jets were -2.5 and down to -2 on Friday. That is a massive adjustment for just one week. And the public doesn’t care as their parlay action is on the New York Jets.
The Indianapolis Colts are in a similar situation, except they’re not playing a great defense like they did in the first two weeks against the Bills and Jets. This week they get a Titans squad that they have won and covered against seven straight times. Last week at the Westgate, the Colts were 4.5-point road favorites for this game. This week they’re -3, and that’s also including a slight downgrade on Tennessee after a lackluster performance at Cleveland. Unlike the Eagles, the public is still sticking with the Colts, but not for any large money to move the number yet.
Everyone has a different opinion on wagering strategy, and at some point or another that strategy has paid off a few weeks in a row and led to big winning days.
But just some friendly advice: Don’t completely abandon a team you may have been high on just off of two performances and don’t think a team is as bad as they seem after two weeks. Things cycle around in the NFL more than any sport because the actual ratings hold truer. Give yourself about four to five weeks of action to get a true feel of who these teams really are and then hop on or off their betting wagon.
At this stage of the season, your best bet is to go against the overreactions and take the value of the adjusted numbers.
Here’s a look at the top public parlay sides of the week wagered at the South Point chain of books over the past week:
Steelers, Jets, Patriots, Colts, Falcons, Cardinals (big one-sided play), Bills, and Broncos.
Here’s a look at what the Westgate had posted last week in its early week 3 lines set last Wednesday compared to where they have adjusted as of Friday:
Pittsburgh at St. Louis: Opened Rams -2.5, Steelers now -1
San Diego at Minnesota: Opened Vikings -3, now they’re -2.5
Tampa Bay at Houston: Opened Texans -8.5, now they’re -6.5
Philadelphia at NY Jets: Opened Eagles -3.5, now Jets -2
New Orleans at Carolina: Opened Panthers -2.5 (Brees in), now OFF with Brees? CG is -6.5
Jacksonville at New England: Opened Patriots -12.5, now -13.5
Cincinnati at Baltimore: Opened Ravens -3 (-120), now -2.5
Oakland at Cleveland: No line posted last week, Browns now -3.5, -3 (-120) at other books.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Opened Colts -4.5, now -3
Atlanta at Dallas: Opened Cowboys -4.5 (Romo in), now Falcons -1 (Romo out)
San Francisco at Arizona: Opened Cardinals -4.5, now -6.5
Chicago at Seattle: Opened Seahawks -9.5 (Cutler in), now -14.5 (Cutler out)
Buffalo at Miami: Opened Dolphins -3, and is now -3 (EV)
Denver at Detroit: opened Pick ’em, DEN now -3
Kansas City at Green Bay: opened GB -6.5, and is still the same.