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NFL Week 3 – Betting recap

The largest underdog to win straight up
Raiders (+3.5, ML +160) at Browns, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Seahawks (-16.5) vs. Bears, 26-0

— After a ton of upsets in Week 2, order was restored in Week 3. Four teams were favored by a touchdown or more in Week 3, and not only did all four teams win but they went 3-1 against the number. The Seattle Seahawks (-16.5) were the biggest favorite on the board, and they took care of business by a 26-0 score over the hapless Chicago Bears. The New England Patriots (-14) powered past the Jacksonville Jaguars by a 51-17 score, while the Arizona Cardinals (-7) clubbed the San Francisco 49ers by a 47-7 count. The Carolina Panthers kept their record unblemished, but backup QB Luke McCown and the New Orleans Saints were able to grab the backdoor cover (see bad beats below).

Divisional business

— There were six divisional games in Week 3, and home and road teams split 3-3 SU/ATS. The favorite went 4-2 SU with the underdog going 4-2 ATS.

— It was a high-scoring weekend of football, as the ‘over’ hit in 10 of 16 games, including two of the three primetime games. The game with the highest total (49) was the Jaguars-Patriots battle, and New England took care of the over themselves. The second-highest total on the board was the Steelers-Rams (48.5) games, and that game had the lowest production of all games with just 18 total points. The total might have been done before it started when Ben Roethlisberger (knee) left early in the first half with a sprained medial collateral ligament.

— The game with the lowest total, the Buccaneers-Texans (41) game went well under with 28 total points.

— Is there a new ‘McCown’ trend? In games with a quarterback named McCown as the starter, the ‘over’ is 2-0. Luke McCown started for the New Orleans Saints, and their game at Carolina hit the over, while Josh McCown started for the Cleveland Browns, and their game against Oakland also went over. Another trend is that they both lost.

— For the first time this season the over edged out the under in primetime games, 2-1. In four primetime games in Week 1, the under went 3-1, and the under was 2-1 in Week 2. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013. So far this season the over is 4-6 (40%) through 10 games.

Injury Report

— The biggest injury of Week 3 was Roethlisberger (knee), who is expected to be sidelined anywhere from four to six weeks. Michael Vick will take over the reins of Pittsburgh’s offense, so watch those totals in future weeks. The Steelers offense won’t score like they had been before Big Ben went down, although keep in mind Le’Veon Bell is now back from suspension to lessen the blow somewhat.

— Bills WR Sammy Watkins (calf) left the game at Miami due to a calf injury, although it is possible he was removed as a precaution with the game well out of hand.

— Panthers DE Charles Johnson (hamstring) left the win against the Saints due to a hamstring injury, and he is expected to be OUT for Week 4. As such, the team acquired DEJared Allen from the Bears for a sixth-round draft pick on Monday.

— Bears QB Jay Cutler (hamstring) did not play in a 26-0 loss in Seattle, nor did WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring). Cutler is expected to sit again in Week 4 against the surprising Raiders, although Jeffery feels he’ll be ready.

— Packers WR Davante Adams (ankle) aggravated his ankle injury early in the Monday night game against the Chiefs and was unable to return.

— Jaguars WR Marqise Lee (hamstring) injured his hamstring against the Patriots, although he felt he could have returned if needed.

— Vikings WR Charles Johnson (ribs) left the win against the Chargers, and his status for Week 4 is uncertain.

— Jets TE Jeff Cumberland (head) left the loss against the Eagles, and his status for Sunday’s early-morning game in London against the Dolphins is in question.

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