NFL-Week 11-Monday night football-Falcons at Seahawks game preview

The Falcons (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) won for the first time at Mercedes Benz Stadium since Week 2 as Atlanta trounced Dallas, 27-7 to easily cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Atlanta also covered for the first time in six games as quarterback Matt Ryan connected on a pair of short touchdown passes, while the Falcons’ defense yielded 233 yards to the Cowboys. Ryan put together an efficient 22-of-29 passing performance for 215 yards, while running back Tevin Coleman rushed for 83 yards on 20 carries and one touchdown.

Atlanta put together its best defensive effort of the season by allowing single-digit points for the first time since giving up seven points at Tennessee in 2015. Since the 3-0 start to the season, the Falcons own a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS record, but Dan Quinn’s squad has outgained opponents in six of the past seven contests.

The Seahawks (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) continued their ascent towards the top of the NFC West race behind the surprising Rams by picking up their fifth win in the past six games at Arizona last Thursday. Seattle held off Arizona, 22-16, while pushing as six-point road favorites to improve to 3-0 in the division, including a pair of away victories. Russell Wilson tossed a pair of touchdown passes to go along with 238 yards for Seattle, as he connected with tight end Jimmy Graham on both scores.

Seattle suffered a major loss in the secondary as standout cornerback Richard Sherman was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. In spite of Sherman’s injury, the Seahawks managed to hold their seventh opponent to 18 points or fewer this season, while racking up their third consecutive victory away from CenturyLink Field.

ROAD WOES

Atlanta owns a winning record away from Mercedes Benz Stadium this season at 3-2, but the Falcons have covered only once on the highway. In fact, the Falcons’ lone road cover came at Detroit in Week 3 as three-point favorites, 30-26, as a late Lions’ touchdown was wiped off the board on a questionable tackle at the goal-line. Atlanta was limited to 17 points or fewer in road defeats at Carolina and New England, while rallying to beat the Jets, 25-20 as 6 ½-point favorites in Week 8. Last season, the Falcons posted a solid 7-2 ATS record on the highway, including a 4-2 ATS mark as an underdog.

We know about Seattle’s domination at CenturyLink Field over the years (42-7 since 2012), but the Seahawks haven’t exactly played the greatest competition at home in 2017. Seattle’s three victories have come against San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Houston, who have combined for a 7-22 record on the season. In wins over the 49ers and Texans, Pete Carroll’s squad managed winning margins of three points apiece and failed to cover. In Seattle’s previous home contest against Washington in Week 9, the Redskins stunned the Seahawks, 17-14 as eight-point underdogs.

The high-flying Falcons’ offense has been grounded this season by cashing the UNDER in six of nine games, compared to a 16-2-1 mark to the OVER last season. Atlanta is currently on a 5-1 UNDER run, while hitting the UNDER in five of six games with a closing total below 50. Seattle has finished UNDER the total in four of the past five contests, but its two highest-scoring games of the season came at home with OVERS against Indianapolis (46-18) and Houston (41-38).

The Falcons and Seahawks split a pair of matchups last season with the home team winning each time. Seattle blew a 17-3 lead in the first matchup at CenturyLink Field in October as Atlanta scored 21 unanswered points to go in front, 24-17. Running back Christine Michael scored a one-yard touchdown, but kicker Steven Hauschka missed the extra point as the Seahawks trailed by one. Hauschka redeemed himself late in the fourth quarter by booting a 44-yard field goal to give Seattle a 26-24 win, but the Falcons cashed as 6 ½-point underdogs.

Atlanta picked up revenge in the divisional playoffs against Seattle by blasting the Seahawks, 36-20 as 6 ½-point favorites. Ryan torched the Seattle defense for 338 yards and three touchdown passes, while running back Davonte Freeman picked up 125 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. The Falcons intercepted Wilson twice, while outscoring the Seahawks, 36-6 after falling behind 7-0 early.

Since 2010, the Falcons have won four of six meetings with the Seahawks, including a 2-1 mark at Seattle in this stretch. Five of these six matchups have eclipsed the total, including in both games last season.

The Favorite-OVER combination has been money in the bank the last five weeks on Monday night football, while the OVER is 8-3 on Mondays this season. The Falcons have cashed plenty of tickets in Monday action since 2012 by going 5-1 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in the underdog role. The Falcons have yet to play on a Monday this season, but knocked off the Saints last season, 45-32 as three-point ‘dogs in its lone Monday affair. Under Carroll, the Seahawks own a perfect 7-0 record on Mondays, including a 5-0 mark at CenturyLink Field.

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