NFL Week 11 2011 Flashback!

Game: Buffalo at Cincinnati (Sunday 11/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 45 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

This has been a season of disappointment for both of these teams as they have combined for a total of three wins. Buffalo is averaging just 18 points per game while Cincinnati isn’t doing much better at 20. The Bengals were on a lot of people’s list of Super Bowl contenders, but that isn’t happening. Their offense is sputtering and Carson Palmer simply looks like he has lost the zip on his fastball. The Bengals have managed to top the 21 point mark just once in their last seven games. Buffalo plays hard every week despite the losses, and after being rewarded with a win for their efforts last week, I expect them to play charged up here. The Bills defense has really come to life. After five straight weeks of allowing 30+ the Bills have dug in on the defensive end, allowing a total of 47 points in their last three games. The defense has picked up the pace but the offense has produced just 43 points in the last three. The Bills are now a perfect 7-0 to the UNDER after allowing 15 or less in their last game, and 8-0 after a win. Cincinnati is 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 at home and 6-0 UNDER the past three seasons at home vs. losing teams. Take the UNDER here.
Game: Baltimore at Carolina (Sunday 11/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 3 units on Carolina +13.5(buy2) (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

To win the NFL, you have to be a contrarian and be willing to back the ugliest of ugly. The longer the Panthers lose, the more value there is in backing them and this week we see them as a very rare double-digit home dog. The Panthers have only a single win to show for the season, and have now dropped three straight games by double-digits. They are on to their third QB but how much worse can it get? The Panthers certainly couldn’t deliver with Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen at the helm, so with Brian St. Pierre we get a change – which can be good. We also get an extra point or two on the line which certainly could come into play here. The Ravens are off a last drive loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Their defense, once the team’s signature, has been faltering as the season progresses. They allowed just 13.6 ppg through their first five games, but have since allowed 23.3 ppg in their last four. That is a full 10 point decline, so laying double-digis on the road is dangerous here, no matter who lines up on the other side. Carolina may not be winning a lot of games but they certainly are positioned to make their backers money in this type of spot. The last eight times they have been posted as an 8-14 point underdog, they are a perfect 8-0 ATS. They have also been posted as a 7+ point dog at home three times in the last three years and are 3-0 ATS in those games. Under John Fox, the Panthers are 24-14 ATS after a double-digit loss. The Ravens are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. And let’s not forget that on the road this season, this team is 2-3 straight-up. This one looks easy for the Ravens, and with no one wanting any piece of Carolina after three straight ugly losses, the biggest public bet of the weekend is on Baltimore. Take the bundle of points on the home dog here.
Game: Green Bay at Minnesota (Sunday 11/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 2 units on Minnesota +6(buy2) (-120) (risk 2 to win 1.7)
Release: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 45 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Minnesota Vikings certainly aren’t the team they were a year ago, and we have faded them plenty this season. But at the same time, this team hasn’t been awful at home. On the road, the Vikes are 0-5 SU and ATS. But at home, they are 3-1. Their defense has held opponents to just 17.2 ppg here in the Dome. As a home underdog, they are 21-12-1 ATS since 1990. They are also 7-2 ATS as a home dog in division games. While it may seem they are ready to pack it in for this season, you can bet they are going to be up for a game against the hated Packers. In seven home games as an underdog vs. the Packers, Minnesota is 5-2 straight up! The Packers play a lot of close games. Five of their last seven have been decided by 4 points or less. They are just 2-6 in their last eight games favored by a FG or less. On the road this season, they are scoring just 16.5 points per game. Take Minnesota plus the points.  also play the UNDER. The Packers road games this season have averaged 30.5 total points. With Minnesota holding foes to just 17.2 per game here at home, Green Bay is not going to have an easy time finding the endzone. Over the past two seasons, Green Bay is 7-0 UNDER on the road when coming off a home win. The Vikings have now played seven of their last ten home games to the UNDER. Over the past three seasons, they are 8-1 UNDER at home when their last game went UNDER. Minnesota and the UNDER…
Game: Detroit at Dallas (Sunday 11/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 5 units on Detroit +9(buy2) (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Release: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Dallas Cowboys made a couple changes last week. They fired Wade Phillips, and they (finally) showed some professionalism and pride. It resulted in a big win – only their second of the season. So now a 2-7 team deserves to be a touchdown favorite vs. a team that has gone 7-1 ATS this year? I don’t think so. America’s team is being over-valued here. Last week the Cowboys game against the Giants turned with Dallas up 9-3, and the Giants going in for the go ahead score, when Eli Manning threw a 101 yard pick-6. That turned a potential 10-9 Giant lead to a 16-3 deficit. It could be considered a 14 point turnover. The Giants were also burned on a 71 yard TD pass. While Dallas was certainly the right side of that game last week (we were on them), the final score showing a 13-point win is a bit misleading. Dallas was outagined by over 50 yards in the game, and the Giants had the ball for nearly 38 minutes to the Cowboys 22. The G-men also had 10 more first downs than Dallas. That kind of boxscore usually shows a loss, not a 13 point win. That was a huge game for Dallas (new coach, hated rival, no respect, etc). But this game won’t get the full attention in the same way. And, we’ve seen what Dallas has done this year when they aren’t into it. One week does not make a season and I believe Dallas has a lot more to prove before they start laying touchdown spreads. Since week three, the Lions have played games vs. top NFL teams in the Jets, Giants and Packers, and lost by a combined 13 points. The Lions once inept defense is coming of age as they have allowed just 93 regulation points in the last five weeks (18.6 ppg). The Dallas offense is a shell of what it was, as they have scored 19 ppg the last three weeks. Detroit has not lost to anyone since week three by more than 8 points. The Cowboys have lost their home games by 10 points per game on average. Take the Lions plus the points. also take the UNDER. Dallas has played 18-8 to the UNDER in their last 26 games vs. losing teams. Detroit has gone 65-41 UNDER in their last 106 games vs. losing teams including 16-6 UNDER in their last 22 home games vs. bad teams (.250 or worse). Dallas is 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game….
Game: Washington at Tennessee (Sunday 11/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 3 units on Washington +9.5(buy2) (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Washington was humiliated on Monday Night in front of a national audience. That was no ordinary humiliation either. They allowed what some are calling the best QB performance ever. It was 35-0 Eagles before your seat was warm. Athletes have a lot of pride and as a result we quite often see that after a team gets buried, they puff their chests and come up big next time out. expect that to be the case with the Redskins this week. Mike Shanahan is 13-4 ATS off a double-digit division loss in his coaching career. He’s also 11-1 ATS after a game in which his team trailed by 2+ TDs at halftime. This is not a great Redskins team, but they did beat Green Bay and Philadelphia, so the talent is there. Tennessee has shown a lot of deficiencies on defense the last two weeks allowing 62 oints in two losses, both games season highs in points allowed. The offense has bogged down, and they have QB issues. Kerry Collins is out and Vince Young has an ankle injury. He’ll play, but won’t be at 100%. That is a bigger problem for him than most QBs because he depends so much on his legs to be effective. The Titans are a very weak choice as a 3.5-9.5 point favorite where they are a woeful 26-40 ATS under Jeff Fisher in this range. The Skins have failed to cover as a road dog just once in their last six. They are also 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games on the road when getting 3.5 to 7 points.take Washington in this one.
Game: Cleveland at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 4 units on Cleveland +4(buy2) (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Cleveland Browns and the Jacksonville Jaguars are two of the NFL’s most improved teams from a year ago. Over the last three weeks, Cleveland has beaten New Orleans and New England and they had the Jets dead to rights but fumbled away an overtime win. Colt McCoy has stabilized the passing game, making good decisions. And, Peyton Hillis has become one of the leagues top running backs. Throw in Josh Cribbs, who seems to break a return each week, and you have an offense that can get it done. Rob Ryan has the Browns defense ranked in the top 10 in the league in points allowed (20.2). The Jags had a big win over Indianapolis, but that was four weeks ago. Their other four wins on the season have come vs. teams with a combined record of 10-26. The Browns have become cover machines, especially playing within the AFC where they are now 12-4 ATS in their last 16. The Browns are a perfect 6-0 ATS under Eric Mangini vs. bad defensive teams like Jacksonville (teams allowing 350+ yards per game). Jacksonville has been coughing up a lot of money as a favorite. They are 2-12 ATS the past three seasons as a favorite and as home chalk, they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12. Some people are still having trouble believing Cleveland is a good team.  go with Cleveland in this one.
Game: Houston at New York Jets (Sunday 11/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 4 units on Houston +9.5(buy2) (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The New York Jets looked like a team headed for a potential Super Bowl appearance. Their defense early was as good as ever and Mark Sanchez looked like he was maturing into a top flight NFL QB. Through the first five games, Sanchez had eight TD passes and no interceptions. That was a marked improvement from his 2009-10 season. How things have changed. Sanchez has thrown just four TD passes in his last four games, while serving up six INT’s with at least one pick thrown in every game. The Jets defense has allowed 20+ points in four of their last five games and it took two miracle finishes to win in OT the last two games vs. losing teams (Detroit and Cleveland). Prior to that, only a late pass interference call kept the Jets from losing to another losing team (Denver). So while the Jets still look very impressive at 7-2, they aren’t quite as strong as they appear on the surface. Houston is again shaping up as a dissapointment. But the one thing this team does well (throw the ball), matches up very nicely with New York’s achilles heel. The Jets are 5th overall on defense, but 15th against the pass. And, Houston’s biggest weakness (defense) is not one that the Jets have been able to exploit. New York is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. bad defensive teams (those allowing 375+ yards per game). The Texans have come up big as a road dog having gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in that role. They have also gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when coming off a road loss and 28-14 ATS after back-to-back losses. The Jets are just 3-7 ATS at home as a favorite of 3.5-10 in their last 10 games posted in this range.  take Houston…..
Game: Tampa Bay at San Francisco (Sunday 11/21 4:05 PM Eastern)
Release: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 44(buy2) -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Bucs have been a positive surprise, and the Niners a negative one. Signs are that the Niners are on the move and still have a shot in the weak NFC West as no team has established a dominant look. San Francisco was 0-5 allowing 26 ppg in their first five games, but they have turned up the heat defensively having allowed just 17 ppg in their last four games. It’s resulted in a 3-1 record, so they seem to have righted the ship somewhat thanks to better defense. The Bucs have played to the UNDER to a 27-11 mark in their last 38 following a win of 14 or more points. And, nine of their last twelve games vs. an NFC opponent have gone UNDER as well. These teams have historically played low scoring games with the last six meetings resulting in five unders. play the UNDER……
Game: Indianapolis at New England (Sunday 11/21 4:15 PM Eastern)
Release: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 51.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Colts are winning as usual, but they aren’t doing it the way they have in the past. The lack of a running game, and respect for Peyton Manning has changed the offense. The Colts are using the short passing game as a running game, and are keeping drives going a lot longer. Gone are the shootouts from the past and against New England, I would venture a guess that if anyone had the opportunity to wager that at least one of the high-powered Colts’ first nine games would reach 53 total points scored, you’d have an army lining up to take that bet. The fact is, none of them have! Many think of Indianapolis and think points and over. But, the last 35 times the Colts have faced a total of 47 or more, they have played to a 23-12 UNDER mark. When that number reaches 50 or higher they have gone 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11. The problem is that the total gets inflated due to perception, and the total most often falls short. The Pats are different against very good teams. The last 30 they have played at home vs. a team with a winning road record has seen them go 21-8-1 to the UNDER. In November games under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 26-16 UNDER. This team under the Hoody is also 30-17 UNDER when facing a team that averages 24+ points per game. In what should be a great game to watch. take the UNDER…..
Game: New York Giants at Philadelphia (Sunday 11/21 8:20 PM Eastern)
Release: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 49.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)

A nation watched as the Eagles offense dominated last Monday night, putting up 59 points vs. a defenseless Redskins team. They also saw the Giants get torched for 33 points byDallas. The Eagles 59 points is tied for the most scored by a team this season. Oakland scored 59 vs. Denver in October and their next game reached just 36 total points. So one high scoring week doesn’t always carry over to the next. Without taking anything from a great performance last weekfrom Michael Vick, let’s put things in perspective by recognizing whoit came against. Washington is ranked dead last on defense, allowing an obscene 415 yards per game.The Giants suffered a 101 yard interception return last week which didn’t come against their defense. Speaking of the Giants defense, it is ranked#1. So, the Eagles go from facing the absolute worst to the absolute best andthe resistance here will be quite different. But, this total is reflective on what they know the public leans on the most – what happened last week. The Philly defense is ranked #11 so we have two top defenses with a total that defies that. Philadelphia is 21-7 to the UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in their last game. When taking to the road after back-to-back OVERs, the Giants are 20-8 UNDER in their last 28 such games. Philadelphia has played back-to-back 50+ total point games 16 times over the past fifteen years. They have gone 13-3 UNDER in their next game. take the UNDER…..

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