We are down to the final two teams and the final game of the NFL season with Super Bowl XLIX on tap for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Arizona. The New England Patriots come in as the hot team after crushing Indianapolis 45-7 in the AFC Championship as seven-point home favorites, while the Seattle Seahawks escaped almost sure defeat in the NFC title game with a dramatic 28-22 overtime victory against Green Bay as 8.5-point favorites at home.
The early money from the betting public agrees that New England is the hot team given that it has already gone from being a one-point underdog to a one-point favorite on current betting odds for the big game. The total opened at 48.5 and so far it has held steady. A closer look at some of the recent betting trends for each team as well as for the head-to-head matchup actually indicates that the Seahawks could actually be the hotter team in this showdown.
The Patriots easily covered against Indianapolis this past Sunday, but they could not cover as seven-point home favorites in a tight 35-31 win against Baltimore in the Divisional Playoffs. They are now just 5-10 against the spread in their last 15 postseason games. When it comes to the Super Bowl itself, this will be New England’s eighth appearance in franchise history and it has gone a costly 1-5-1 ATS in the first seven trips. It has also had its issues with the NFC West over the years with 2-5 record ATS in its last seven games against a team from this division.
Seattle failed to cover against the Packers its last time out, but in the Divisional Round it rolled over Carolina 31-17 to cover the closing 13.5-point spread at home. The Seahawks are now 6-1 straight-up in their last seven playoff games with a 5-2 record against the spread. While they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team from the AFC, they are an impressive 10-4 SU in their last 14 contests against this conference. They have also covered in six of their last seven games against the AFC East.
Head-to-head, Seattle has a 6-2 edge both SU and ATS in the last eight games against New England and the total has gone OVER in the last three meetings.