NFL Flashback 2010!

2010/11/13 

I rate each Investment/Release 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any release).
Game: Detroit at Buffalo (Sunday 11/14 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 5 units on Detroit +5buy two (-130) (risk 5 to win 3.9) WON +4units

We’ve been on Buffalo for three straight weeks and they haven’t let us down. In those games they were under the radar (an underdog that was playing better than people thought). But now they shift to the favorite role and I believe it’s time to shift gears. Yes, Detroit has dropped 24 straight on the road. So why back them here? This is a role reversal game with the Bills as the winless team coming into a role the Lions are usually in. It’s the Lions who are now very underrated. Most people see a 2-6 record and think it’s more of the same. But, their ATS record paints a different picture. They have covered seven of their eight games and the one they did not cover they missed by one point. The oddsmakers haven’t caught up to them yet and we get value on them here in a game in which they should be favored. The Lions recorded 26 sacks all of last season and stand fifth in the league this season with their rebuilt front with 24 already (thank you Suh). They are improved on both sides of the ball. The 2-6 mark could be 5-3 with any luck. A bad call took a win away from them vs Chicago in the opener, an OT loss to the Jets stung, a 3 point loss to Philly and an INT on a drive that could of tied the Giants late in the fourth were all games within their grasp. Sure, Mathew Stafford is likely not playing but this team has shown it can compete with Shaun Hill under center. The Bills are worn out with three straight losses by a field goal, where they left a lot on the field.  The lowly Lions aren’t exactly a team that will get the motor running. The Bills have a home field deficit showing 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 here. I like Detroit here.
Game: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (Sunday 11/14 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 3 units on Game Total OVER 47 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) LOSS -3units

The Colts are again scoring. Through eight games they have averaged 27.1 points per game (29 per game at home). That spells a lot of trouble for a Bengals defense that has allowed 26.7 points per game away from home this season (29.3 over their last three). The Bengals started the season holding their first two opponents to 17 points. But, since then they have not kept a single opponent under 22. The one really good offense they have faced (Atlanta) torched them for 39. This will be the best offense they have faced. The Colts defense has been up and down but they have shown that they can give up points as they allowed 31 to Jacksonville, 24 to Washington and 26 to Philadelphia last week. The Bengals are racking up over 400 yards of offense per game on the road this season so they will get some. Peyton Manning put the ball up 62 times last game and the Colts are 10-2 OVER in their last twelve after a game with 50+ attempts. I like this game to go OVER the total.
Game: New York Jets at Cleveland (Sunday 11/14 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 2 units on Cleveland +3.5 (-115) (risk 2 to win 1.7) LOSS -2units

The Jets lost their opener to Baltimore and everyone prepped their tombstone. Then they went on a 5-0 run and everyone was again talking Super Bowl. The defense was doing its thing and Mark Sanchez went through a three week stretch with a QB rating of from 106-124 in the three games. Through five games he had eight TD passes and zero INT’s. That 5-1 team is what has stuck in people’s minds. They want to believe this team is great. But, the last two games has seen them lose to Green Bay in a shutout and to Detroit. And, they very nearly lost to Denver three weeks back. The Jets defense is losing its luster and Sanchez has reverted to last year’s form, throwing just two TD passes the last three weeks with five INT’s. Cleveland has found themselves a stable QB with Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis has been huge in the backfield. Throw in Josh Cribbs and the Browns suddenly are a threat – just ask New England. The Browns defense is averaging just 19.5 ppg allowed and has held four of eight opponents to 17 points or less. The Jets have started going south and it spirals as they are now 4-9 ATS after an ATS loss. The Browns are really get confident after posting 30+ as they are 7-0 ATS in their next game. They are also 10-2 ATS under the ManGenius following an ATS win. I like Cleveland here.
Game: Minnesota at Chicago (Sunday 11/14 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 3 units on Chicago +1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) WON +3units
Release: 3 units on Game Total OVER 40.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) WON +3units

The evidence is mounting, game by game, that the once stout Vikings defense is a shell of its former self. Yes, they are ranked #5 in yards allowed per game. But that is very misleading with Minnesota allowing 29, 21, 28, 28 and 24 points in their last five games. It isn’t totally the defense’s fault, as their special teams play is bad and they have an error-prone QB that is aging. But the point is, teams are scoring a lot on this team. Chicago has gotten eight yards per attempt out of Jay Cutler and, since the Vikings forte is against the run, I think the ball is going to be in the air a lot in this one. The Vikings are not the same team on the road and stand at just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 roadies vs a team with a winning home record. The Bears are stepping up as a small dog, now at 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 taking three or less. Under Brad Childress, the Vikes are just 6-15 ATS on the road after a home game. I like the Bears to pull this one out. I also like the OVER. Not only has the recent decline of the Vikings defense led to five straight OVERS, but they have also played OVER to a 40-19-1 mark vs a team with a winning home mark. The Bears are in the OVER zone vs. road teams with a losing road record at 12-5 to the OVER. The last four in this series in Chicago all have topped the total. Under Brad Childress, Minnesota is 23-11 OVER afollowing an ATS loss, including 11-3 OVER after back-to-back ATS losses. I like Chicago and the OVER here.
Game: Carolina at Tampa Bay (Sunday 11/14 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 5 units on Carolina +7 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) LOSS -5units

Carolina is in dissarray. They are 1-7. Their starting QB is out. Their two-headed monster rushing attack has one player out (Williams) and another questionable (Stewart). They are coming off a 34-3 drubbing and lost by double-digits the game prior to that. What a perfect time to back them! The Bucs have started this season 5-3 after winning just three games last season, and they are well within striking distance of the playoffs. A team that has historically been the underdog is all of a sudden asked to cover a TD spread. The Bucs have overperformed expectations this season, but those expectations were low! They have been an underdog in six of seven games. They were a favorite once – to St. Louis, and they did not cover that spread. The Panthers’ defense ranks #11 in yards allowed per game and their bad offense should finally be able to move the ball vs the soft 25th ranked Tampa defense that allows five yards per carry. Tampa’s offense is getting less than 20 points per game and will be challenged by this Carolina defense. So, laying a full TD here is risky business and I see the value on the other side. The Panthers are 13-6 ATS coming off a 10+ point loss at home while the Bucs have been no-shows at home vs. a team with a losing record at 0-7 ATS in their last seven. Tampa Bay is 1-9 ATS dating back to last season at home and 0-6 ATS over that span after a road loss. John Fox is 41-29 ATS as an underdog (31-19 on the road). He’s also 19-10 ATS off a home loss and 10-1 ATS after scoring less than a touchdown. Carolina shows some pride here and keeps this one close at a minimum.
Game: Houston at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/14 1:00 PM Eastern)
Release: 4 units on Houston +1.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) LOSS -4units

This is a critical game here with both of these teams entering at 4-4. The loser will become pretender and the winner becomes contender. Give Jacksonville credit for their big win vs. Indy five weeks ago. But, the rest of the wins show little. They are holding playoff hopes on one big game and I’m not sure if the Jags have really turned the corner. Outside of that win over the Colts, the Jags have beaten Denver, Buffalo and Dallas – teams with a combined record of 3-21! Houston has already beat Indy, having played them twice. They have also faced San Diego, Kansas City as well as the Giants, so their schedule has been way above most. I ask you, which is the better team? To me it is clearly Houston. Both defenses are pourous, but offense clearly goes to the Texans who, despite a very tough schedule, rank in at #6 in offense. They have more weapons to take advantage of the weak Jacksonville defense and that will be the difference here. Jacksonville is 5-15 ATS at home over the past three seasons including 1-10 ATS as a favorite! They are also just 2-10 ATS over that span following a win. Houston gets this one.
Game: Kansas City at Denver (Sunday 11/14 4:05 PM Eastern)
Release: 2 units on Kansas City -1 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)LOSS -2units
Release: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 43 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)LOSS -4units

The Broncos opened 6-0 last season and ended up not making it to the playoffs. Since that abberation, this Josh McDaniels led team is just 4-14 straight up. They have been outscored by 134 points and have lost five games by 17 or more. Yet, they are favored over a 5-3 team? Clearly the Broncos are not a good team, while the Chiefs have turned the corner. This is also a really bad matchup for Denver as their biggest weakness gets a very stiff test on Sunday. The Broncos rank 31st of 32 teams against the rush, allowing 155 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are ranked #1 in the league in rushing, grinding out 180 yards a game on the ground. Since McDaniels took over, the Broncos are 0-7 ATS when they allow 150+ yards on the ground. They are also 0-7 ATS the past three seasons at home vs. division foes. To make things tougher on Denver, the KC defense has now reached top ten status at #9. It’s time to forget about all the disastrous seasons the Chiefs have had in recent years. This team is now legit and they are the best team on the field in this one. Coming off a divisional loss, this is an important game for Kansas City and I think they show up. I like the Chiefs here. I also like the UNDER. Kansas City is a possession team with a lethal running game and a defense that has held opponents to 20 or less in seven of their eight games in regulation minutes. Denver has only topped the total in one of their last eight as a home dog. The Chiefs are now 12-4-1 to the UNDER vs. a team with a losing record. The Broncos are 6-0 UNDER in the Josh McDaniels era at home vs. good teams (.600+). I like Kansas City and UNDER in this one.
Game: Seattle at Arizona (Sunday 11/14 4:15 PM Eastern)

Release: 5 units on Seattle +3.5 (-115) (risk 5 to win 4.4)WON +4.5units

It looked like the Cards had things going vs. the Vikings last week, but they stumbled in the end in overtime. But they played well for most of the game, right? Hardly. The Cards were beaten to a pulp off the line of scrimmage by a 507-225 count. The Vikings had 28 first downs to the Cardinals’ 13. The reality is that Arizona is who we thought they were – a bad team, sitting at 3-5. Seattle hasn’t fared much better over the last two weeks losing by a combined score of 74-10. But those losses came against the hottest team in the NFL (New York Giants) and an Oakland team that found lightning in a bottle for a couple of weeks. Also, Matt Hasselbeck sat out last game and he should be back here. Remember, the week before those two disasters by the Hawks, they demolished Arizona 22-10, holding them to 222 yards of offense. The Cards are not faring well after being held to under 250 yards of offense in their last game at 5-12 ATS in their next outing. The Seahawks bounce back to a 7-3 ATS mark after allowing 30+ in their last game. Seattle gets the call here.
Game: Dallas at New York Giants (Sunday 11/14 4:15 PM Eastern)
Release: 4 units on Dallas +14 (-120) (risk 4 to win 3.3) WON +3.5units

Who could have predicted at the beginning of this season that we would see a two-touchdown spread in this game. Overreaction maybe? Just when the owner said that firing a coach in mid season didn’t make sense, he couldn’t take it anymore. After watching his beloved Cowboys get humiliated 45-7 in front of a Sunday Night National TV audience, Jerry Jones finally and mercifully brough an end to the Wade Phillips era. Thank goodness. Phillips definitely lost the team and I would not be surprised at all if the Cowboys respond with all the talent they have and make the Giants sweat more than expected here. The Giants are the hottest team in the league right now and, looking at Dallas at 1-7, they may not take them seriously enough. These are professional football players with pride. There is no more lame coach to blame poor play on. After losing 17-35 and 7-45, I expect Dallas to show up here against a hated rival. The Cowboys have responded after dismal performances, going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 35+ points last game. The Giants have been no-shows facing a team with a losing road record at 0-5 ATS in their last five tries. Under Tom Coughlin, this team is 4-14 ATS at home after allowing 14 or fewer points last game. Dallas brings it here against a New York team that could be drinking a bit too much koolaid. I like Dallas plus the points.
Game: St. Louis at San Francisco (Sunday 11/14 4:15 PM Eastern)
Release: 3 units on Game Total OVER 38 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) WON +3units

This total doesn’t reflect the reality of the situation in my mind. Thanks to a very solid rookie QB, the Rams offense is certainly light years ahead of where it was the last two years. The 32 games played the past two years showed them reaching 20 points a total of four times. This season, the Rams have hit the 20 mark four times already (in half of their games). The Niners are making some changes on offense and have gone from 13ppg in their first four to 21.3 ppg in their last four, clearly a marked improvement. The Niners have had posted totals in the 30s on four occasions this season and none have stayed UNDER. In their last 15 home games with a total in this range (35-38), they are 12-3 OVER. The Rams have been OVER-prone after their bye week as they are 10-4 to the OVER after a bye. And, the Niners are 12-1 OVER after their bye week, making for a combined 22-5 to the OVER for both off byes. I like this one to go OVER.
Game: New England at Pittsburgh (Sunday 11/14 8:20 PM Eastern)
Release: 4 units on New England +4.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) WON +3.5units

The New England Patriots have had one heck of a schedule through the first half of the year. They had three straight games vs. Baltimore, San Diego and Minnesota (all wins by the way), an a game vs. Cleveland. They took the Browns (a decent team) to lightly and were complete no-shows. You can bet Bellichick was fired up after that loss and this team will respond this week. They now have Pittsburgh and Indianapolis on deck. Every game is important. It’s easy to see how they had nothing to offer for the Browns game, but all that does is serve up a few extra points to the line. Brady and Belichick are a lethal combo when underrated as they are 13-5-1 ATS as a dog.  They have won 12 of the 13 outright! More importantly they are a menacingly impossible team to deal with after scoring 20 or less in their last game. Seldom do the Pats stumble two straight weeks. They are 20-3 straight up and 19-4 ATS after scoring 20 or less last game. Pittsburgh, for as good as their defense is, has been outgained from the line of scrimmage on the season by their opponents. They are the Steel curtain against the run, but teams are lighting up their secondary for 248 yards per game. Who better than Tom Brady to exploit that weakness. After a double-digit loss, the Belichick-led Pats are 15-6 ATS. I like New England..

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