NFL Analysis 12/29/2013

ROB VINCILETTI: WEEK 17 NFL POWER ANGLE + INFO THREAD

In this thread we will look at some of the interesting angles and Indicators and player info and injury updates that apply to Week 17 In the NFL In no specific order

Aaron Rodgers is playing today and bettors are flocking to the Pack

ODDS: Indianapolis is listed as a 10.5-point fave, down a point from an 11.5-point open. Over/under is down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. the AFC.
* Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. divisional opponents.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has completed just 57 percent of his passes with four TDs and three interceptions in three career games against Jacksonville.

Playoff Scenarios for today and there are a plenty

The NFL attempts to construct the Week 17 slate of games to ensure maximum drama. With eight games at 1:00 p.m. ET, seven at 4:25 p.m. ET, and a playoff play-in game between the Eagles and Cowboys at 8:30 p.m. ET, the league once again has done a great job of it.

But there’s one situation that will take a little excitement away from the final Sunday of the regular season. With a four-team scrum unfolding for the sixth seed in the AFC, the San Diego Chargers will know when their home game against the Chiefs begins at 4:25 p.m. ET (or not long after it starts, at the latest) whether a victory will propel the Chargers into the playoffs. Since the only way to avoid that would be to start the Chargers game at 10:00 a.m. local time, it’s an unavoidable complication.

The other three teams that make up the chase for the last golden ticket square off at 1:00 p.m. ET. If the Ravens or Dolphins win, the Chargers will know they can’t get in.

That said, the Chiefs-Chargers game will still carry some drama, if both the Ravens and Dolphins prevail in their early games. Under that scenario, a Chargers win sends Miami to the playoffs and a Chiefs win gives Baltimore the berth.

If the Ravens and Dolphins lose and the Steelers beat the Browns, a Chargers win gives San Diego the sixth seed; a loss hands it to the Steelers. If all three of the contenders lose their 1:00 starts, the Chargers remain win-and-in. A loss would give the spot to the Ravens.

Confused? Get used to it. Only one of 12 specific playoff seeds — the Chiefs with No. 5 in the AFC — have been locked in. By the time the Eagles-Cowboys game begins, the dust will have mostly settled.

ODDS: Miami is a 6.5-point favorite. The over/under is up a half-point to 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 December games.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

The Saints are 11-0-1 ATS (14.62 ppg) since October 23, 2011 as a home favorite when they won their last two home games.

ODDS: Minnesota is a 3-point fave, with the over/under down full point to 51.
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. the NFC.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

ODDS: Tennessee opened at -6.5, but the line has been bet up a hale-point. The total is 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
* Titans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Tennessee.

The Eagles are 0-10 ATS (-9.60 ppg) since September 18, 2011 as a favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.

ODDS: Pittsburgh is a 7-point fave, with the total down a half-point to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with showers in the forecast.

TRENDS:

* Browns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Bills the week after playing Dolphins: 11-37 ATS (from 1990)

ODDS: The Giants opened -3.5 but are now -3, with the total down to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with rain expected and winds blowing across the width of the field at 11 mph later in the game.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine December games.
* Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. the NFC.
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in New York.

The Under is 13-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 18 home games, and 10-4 in the Steelers’ previous 14 divisional games.

Last 27 Browns games, spread has mattered only 3 times (favorite covered or dog won game outright 24 times)

Peyton Manning is 266 yards away from topping Drew Brees 2011 single-season record of 5,476.

ODDS: The Bengals are 7-point faves after opening at -5. The total is down to 43 after opening 44.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Baltimore is 2-6 ATS in its last eight visits to Cincinnati.

ODDS: Atlanta is a 6-point dog, down from an open of +7. The total is up a full point to 46.
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven divisional games.
* Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

ODDS: Chicago is a 3-point dog, with the total down to 51 after opening at 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s with a 56 percent chance of snow and wind gusting out of the northwest at 20 mph.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. divisional opponents.
* Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.

When NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Home team – Last 3 years – Playing in dome surface – Coming off a Road loss: Saints are 10-1-0 ATS

ODDS: New England opened at -8.5 but has been bet down one point. The total opened at 47 and is down to 46.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with rain expected throughout the afternoon.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU win.
* Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Favorite is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

The Eagles are 0-15 OU (-11.1 ppg) since December 25, 2006 when they scored at least 15 points more than expected last game.

ODDS: The Saints are 11-point faves, down from an opening line of -13. The total is up a half-point to 47.5.
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Saints are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Week 17 games.
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

ODDS: The Raiders are 10.5-point dogs, down from a +13 opening line. The total is holding at 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

ODDS: The Cards are 1-point dogs after opening at 49ers -1.5. The total is 41 after opening at 42.
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games on grass.
* Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
* San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

The Bengals are one of only three NFL teams to go into the final week with an unbeaten home record – New Orleans and New England are the others – and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.

The Cardinals are 14-0 OU (7.43 ppg) since December 05, 2004 as a dog with the total of at least 37 after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers.

ODDS: San Diego is a 9.5-point fave, while the total is up one point to 46.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
* Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games in San Diego.

ODDS: Seattle is installed as a 12-point fave, up from an opening of -10. The total is down to 42 after opening at 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with overcast skies and fog a possibility.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

After a loss, Ravens have won 21 of 25 SU the next game.

When MINNESOTA VIKINGS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog – With 6 day off – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog: OVER is 10-2-0

ODDS: Dallas opened +1.5 but the line has since been bet down a whopping five points. The total is down 3.5-points to 52.
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Cowboys are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 December games.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Green Bay will have quarterback Aaron Rodgers back from a collarbone injury for Sunday’s pivotal Week 17 encounter with Chicago, in which the winner claims the NFC North title. Rodgers has thrown for 2,513 yards with 19 TDs and six interceptions in 11 career games versus the Bears.

Bengals and Ravens meetings where the total is at least 42 are 0-11 OU in Baltimore history

Bills are on pace to become only 6th team since 1964 to lead NFL in sacks and finish in top two in interceptions

Cowboys 11-2 ATS run when underdogs by more than a field goal

In Closing We hope You Enjoyed this week 17 Power Thread. Our NBA has started out fast and IS RANKED #1 at Several Popular Leader boards. Bowl Releases are 10-3 We do well year in and year out. Rob is currently RANKED in the top 5 in Overall football and NBA selections this year as he has Cashed Big the first 16 weeks of the season in Both college and Pro football as well as NBA, using his cutting edge systems, simulations and Industry leading data which cant be found any where else. The NBA has started out fast and Rob will be Blitzing the books again this year. Our Big Bowl package will be up this week too. You can get more free selections from Robs page daily.

Giants -3 1/2 Redskins…..Giants will not wan to be completely embarassed in the last home game fo the seaso and will also rally around Justin Tuck as they could be his last game as a Giant and who know with Coughlin.

Titans -7 1/2 Texans…..Take the points in this game as Titans have been too up and down to be confident enought to take then in this game and Texans will put aside the whole Penn State hoopola behind them.

Steelers -7 1/2 Browns….Look for Cleveland to play the ultimate spoiler in this game as the Steelers will look to win and ask for some help to get in just dont see it happening way to many point and browns always plays pitt close.

Vikings -3 1/2 Lions…..No AP could be very bad in this situation as neither team have anything to play for but leaning towards the underdog in this one as Lions will rally around Jim Schwartz as he’s firmly on the hot seat and could easily be his last game in Detroit.

Fish -5 1/2 Jets….Another team that will play hard and rally to keep their coach althrough in this situation dont know why Jets would want Rex back but that not withstanding Jets will upset the Fish and thus knocking them out of any playoff craziness scenarios.

Colts -10 1/2 Jags…..Indy will look to play hard and thus wrapping up the AFC South and try to manuever up in the standing and even possibile shot at frist round bye so luck will come out in force and throw all over the field.

Bengals -6 1/2 Ravens…..In the showdown of the week in the AFC side of playoff wackiness both teams need wins to better chance of getting into playoffs and could possibily be next weekend playoff preview. Just dont see Ravens getting in as Bengal have little more to play for as legit chance at getting first round bye and the #2 seed on the line give the points and ride with hot Bengals.

Panthers -6 1/2 Falcons……Carolina will come out to play this week and will run all over the field on the very dreadfull Atlanta D and sew up the #2 seed behind Seattle thus wrapping up at least one home game.

Seattle -11 1/2 Rams…..Seahawks will look to dominate here at home where the whole NFC will have to go throught and will win the game but not by that many points as rams will keep it close dont forget they did beat saints in Nawlings. Take the Rams in this close game.

Chargers -9 1/2 Chiefs…..Super Chargers will come out to set the pace in this game and will win this game and thus puncing their ticket to wrapping up the #6 seed in AFC playoffs. and added bonus that KC resting their starters.

Denver -10 1/2 Raiders…..Denver has huge game as win will give them home field advantage through out the playoff and Peyton has chace to break Breew total yard record and Denver has chance to break Pats total pts record from couple years ago Denver in the rout.

Niners -1 1/2 Cards……Way to many points look for the Cards not only to keep game close but pull huge upset and thus punching their ticket into the playoffs and into the # 6 seed in NFC.

Saints -12 1/2 Buccs…..Saints have been way too sluggish to deserve a chance to make the playoffs and the rust continues here as look for Goldson and Reevis to make Brees day troublesome. Not only that but Schiano could be playing to keep his job and Buccs win this game.

Pats -6 1/2 Bills….Bills always plays New England tight and could even get a shot to beat the Pats as still not sold on fact that Bellichik might not rest guys and hand Bills the win. thus clinching Bengals with #2 seed.

Packers -2 1/2 Bears…..2 words Aaron Rodgers nuff said the Pack will wrap up the NFC North in this game as Aaron look to avenge the last time they played where he suffered that broken Collarbone coinsceidence i think not.

Eagles -6 1/2 Cowboys…..No Romo could go either way truthfully as we all know Tony has struggled horrible when calendar turns to December but as the reocrd states dallas is 2-11 since 2000 so cant blame all on tony team just doestn show up in week 17 and continues this week. Philly wins the NFC East and clinching the #5 seed.
Sunday card has 35-4 Last Home game 6* NFL System Play of the Yest leading a Big NFL Card with a 5* Triple Perfect Early total, Sunday night 15-0 angle, NFC North 5* Packers- Bears System + NBA 100% Blowout System and NCAAB- Bowls sweep 3-0, NBA 2-1 on Saturday. Free Play below

On Sunday the Free NFL System Club Play is on Washington. Game 309 at 1:00 eastern. The Redskins have covered 4 of the last 5 as a road dog of 3 or less points. Division road dogs in the final week that have revenge if they are under .500 and playing a team like the Giants that come in off a dog win have covered 14 of 16 dating back to the late seventies. The Skins have covered 7 of 8 after playing Dallas. The Giants are 1-9 ats as a home favorite off a road game and have lost the last 2 here vs the Skins. Washington is 9-0 ats as a dog if they lost their last game by 3 or less and have also covered the spread in 7 straight off a loss if they were winning after the 3rd quarter last week. Look for Washington to get the cash today play the points. The Sunday card has a big 6* 35-4 Final Home game system Play of the Year+ 5* Early Triple Perfect total, NFC North 5* system, the 15-0 Sunday night Play and a Never lost NBA Blowout System + NCAAB. Bowls sweep on Saturday.

Brentford Vs MK Dons
Brentford Win & Over 2.5 goals
Brentford (14-4-4) Have only lost two of their games at home, They are in top form and can score lots of goals. Brentford have only lost 1 game in their last 13 games so it shows that they are a strong side home and away. Mk Dons (9-4-8) are also a good side having only lost 1 in their last 5 games, But they can tend to struggle when playing away only winning 2 in their last 5 games. Both teams can score lost of goals and I can see this being a really good game. In the last battles between these teams Brentford have been slightly the better team and also Gleeson is out for MK Dons as he is suspended so will also favor Brentford.

Brentford win & over 2.5 goals at 2.87 Bet365
The odds are short I know but I can see this being a fiery game between two sides who are pushing for the automatic promotion spot. Brentford will be dominate this game and hoping they will score lots of goals.

NFL Releases 12/29/13

Week #17

G.B.Packers -vs- Chicago Bears
release: G.B.Packers -2
odds: -110
wager: 4.4u $

Cleveland Browns -vs- Pittsburgh Steelers
release: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
odds: -110
wager: 2.2u $

Baltimore Ravens -vs- Cincinnati Bengals
release: Baltimore Ravens +7
odds: -110
wager: 2.2u $

Philadelphia Eagles -vs- Dallas Cowboys
release: Philadelphia Eagles ML
odds: -260
wager: 5.2u $

N.Y. Jets -vs- Miami Dolphins
release: N.Y.Jets +6.5
odds: -110
wager: 2.2u $

S.F.49ers -vs- Arizona Cardinals
release: UNDER-43.5
odds: -110
wager: 2.2u $

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