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NCAAF-Week 3- Betting Recap

Cincinnati bounced back from a shellacking from Ohio State last week, topping Miami-Ohio for the cover as 17-point favorites in their rivalry game. ‘Under’ bettors lucked out a bit (see below in bad beats). The Bearcats are 2-0 SU/ATS at home, while the ‘under’ has connected in all three of their outings. … Temple pulled the mild upset over Maryland, 20-17, cashing +180 on the moneyline. UMD opened as high as an eight-point favorite, falling to 5.5 by gametime. The Owls are now 2-0 SU/ATS through two outings with a trip to Buffalo on deck next week. … Houston fell to Washington State in NRG Stadium on Friday night in a neutral-site battle, 31-24. It was expected to be a high-scoring game with a line of 74, but a scoreless first quarter helped the total go well under. Houston is 0-2 SU vs. Power 5 teams so far, but 2-0 ATS. The ‘under’ is 2-0-1 for the Cougars in three games overall. … Navy roughed up East Carolina in the conference opener for both. The Middies won 42-10, easily covering for the second time in as many games as they improved to 2-0 SU/ATS with the ‘under’ 2-0.

Wake Forest outlasted North Carolina 24-18 on Friday night in what was actually not a league game despite both being ACC members. Due to the cross-division scheduling in the ACC, these teams were scheduled to meet once every few years, and the schools wanted to ignite the rivalry on a more regular basis. Wake is now 3-0 SU, but this was their first cover (1-1-1 ATS). … Georgia Tech wasn’t as fortunate, falling to FCS The Citadel in overtime in Atlanta, 27-24. The Bulldogs weren’t exactly a powerhouse in the FCS, well out of the Top 25 rankings, and receiving just three votes in the past FCS poll. Embarrassing loss for the Ramblin’ Wreck. … Virginia Tech nearly met the same fate, edging Furman 24-17. To be fair, the Paladins were at least ranked No. 13 in the FCS rankings this past week. That’s three games and three non-covers for the Hokies, and the ‘under’ has hit in each of their two home outings. … Virginia moved to 3-0 SU with a comeback win against Florida State, 31-24. The Seminoles took the 24-17 lead 11:42 to go, but the Hoos rallied with a touchdown at 6:02. However, they misfired on the extra point and were still down 24-23. With 2:34 to go, UVA scored a touchdown with a two-point conversion, causing the line to push at most shops. The two-point conversion also pushed the total ‘over’ (54).

In that Miami (Ohio)-Cincinnati game, bettors holding over tickets probably thought they were on easy street after a 24-point third quarter gave the game 48 total points on the board through 45 minutes. That’s how the game ended after a scoreless final 15.

— The same situation happened in another game featuring a MAC club. Western Michigan led Georgia State 57-10 after three quarters with a total of 69.5 on the board. After a scoreless fourth quarter, over bettors were left shaking their heads.

— Alabama was hammering South Carolina by a 47-16 count with a 1-yard touchdown run from RB Mac Jones with 2:04 to go. However, the Gamecocks kept playing to the end, scoring a touchdown with :11 left on a QB Ryan Hilinski touchdown pass, crushing those who laid the 26 1/2. To be fair, the Tide were covering for a total of just 1:53. South Carolina’s drive was aided by a targeting call, too, which plenty in the Twitterverse were unhappy about.

— In the Texas-Rice game, the Longhorns were favored by 32 with a total of 57. With 7:50 remaining in the game, Texas took a 38-6 lead. The Longhorns kicked a field goal with 3:29 to take a 41-6 lead. With 1:07 to go, Rice appeared to secure the backdoor cover, 41-13. However, the Longhorns ripped off a 98-yard kickoff return for touchdown to not only cover, 48-13, but flip the total from under to over. Ouch.

— Clemson was leading 34-6 in the final minute at Syracuse. They emptied the bench and a true freshman took it to the house to flip a push at most shops into a cover for the Tigers. You’ll definitely see this one on SVP.

— Moneyline bettors were feeling it in Lexington, as Kentucky, a 10-point ‘dog, led 21-10 after three quarters with Florida down to a backup QB after losing Feleipe Franks to a leg injury. Backup Kyle Trask helped the Gators to a go-ahead touchdown with 4:11 to go, making it 22-21. Kentucky misfired on a field goal, and Josh Hammond rubbed salt in the wound with a 78-yard touchdown run to make it 29-21. The TD run with :33 left flipped the under to an over result.

— Under (63) bettors were feeling good with Texas A&M leading FCS Lamar 55-3 with under two to go. However, the Aggies ripped off a 13-yard touchdown with 1:51 to go, flipping the total to an over result, 62-3.

Florida Atlantic stepped out of conference at Ball State for the 41-31 road victory. They’re 2-0 SU/ATS on the road so far this season, averaging 31.0 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. The total is 1-1-1 with FAU so far through three games. … Western Kentucky put a late scare into Louisville side bettors, but the Cards held on for the cover at both 10 and 10.5, depending on when you bet. The Cards had a 31-7 lead at half, and appeared well on the way to an easy cover, but Western fought back to close to 17 with 12:50 to go, but that was the last score of the day. … North Texas also gave it a nice run at California, but came up short in a 23-17 loss. The Mean Green fell behind 20-0, much to the dismay of UNT side bettors and ‘under’ (50.5) bettors, but North Texas held Cal to just three points in the final three quarters for the cover and under. It was UNT’s first cover in three games, and their first under result.

Kansas opened the week with a win at Boston College, snapping a 48-game road losing streak against Power 5 teams. Les Miles has the Jayhawks sitting at 2-1 SU, but this was their first win over an FBS team and it was the first cover for Kansas in three games. … Kansas State also took care of business on the road against a Power 5 team, edging Mississippi State, 31-24. The Wildcats have fired out of the box at 3-0 SU/ATS. … West Virginia upended N.C. State in Morgantown by a 44-27 count. The matchup in 2018 was wiped out in Raleigh by Hurricane Florence, and the Wolfpack likely wish a storm struck before this one, too. The Mountaineers earned their first win  against an FBS team, their first cover and first ‘over’ in three tries. … Oklahoma State had their hands full at Tulsa, but they eventually pulled away 40-21. The Cowboys actually trailed 21-20 at half. The Golden Hurricane were blanked in the second half helping the ‘under’ (64) connected. … Oklahoma routed UCLA behind QB Jalen Hurts, who ran for 99 yards on the team’s first drive. The Sooner ended up with the 48-14 win, improving to 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS ahead of their conference opener with Texas Tech. … Speaking of the Red Raiders, they were topped 28-14 at Arizona, 28-14. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight for the Red Raiders. … Texas dropped Rice 48-13 in a game featuring some craziness at the end to affect the line and total (see below).

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