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MLB-Monday essentials – New York clash makes a national attention

MLB Preview – New York Mets at New York Yankees

The New York Mets are in the midst of a disappointing season, but once every five days they always feel good about their chances. Ace Jacob DeGrom is scheduled to take the mound on Monday in a nationally televised matchup with the New York Yankees.

The Yanks are at home and have been the much better team this season, but their starter, Luis Severino, has been in a funk of late. The Yankees don’t have much hope of winning the American League East any longer as the Red Sox are way ahead, but they are in line to grab the first wild card. That spot is not set in stone so the Yankees would be well-served to pick up a win in this matchup.

The odds will be interesting so check in before the game to make a wager in MLB betting.

This MLB baseball game between the New York Mets at New York Yankees will be held at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York at 7 p.m ET on Monday, August 13th. This matchup will be broadcast on ESPN.

Odds Analysis

The Mets have a 49-66 record on the season but have actually been decent on the road with a 25-29 record. The Mets have struggled offensively this season, as their 452 runs scored is third-worst in the major leagues. Keep that in mine when the runline is unveiled.

The Yankees are 74-43 on the season, which is still the second best in the majors but unfortunately the best team resides in the A.L. East as well. The Yanks have a run-differential of plus-140 and the team seems to be primed for a nice postseason run. The Yankees are a sparkling 41-17 at home this season.

Probable Pitchers

DeGrom is 6-7 with a fantastic 1.77 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. DeGrom has gotten horrible run support this season as he picked up his first win in six weeks last time out despite consistently pitching great. DeGrom got the win in his last start by throwing six innings of shutout ball against the Reds, striking out 10. DeGrom has 183 strikeouts in 152.1 innings pitched this season and is allowing just a .205 batting average against. He is one of the top candidates for the National League Cy Young this season despite the under .500 record.

Severino is 15-5 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He has put together a good season overall but it was a stupendous season until recent struggles Severino had an ERA of 1.98 on July 1 but has given up three earned runs or more in each of his past six outings, including six in two different starts. Severino is a talented hurler but needs to get back on track. This is a good opportunity to do so against a suspect Mets offense.

Injury Report

The Yankees are still without star outfielder Aaron Judge, who is on the way back from a wrist injury. Catcher Gary Sanchez is also shelved due to injury, which has taken away a pair of big bats in the lineup.

The Yankees still have a lot of potent options, led by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, but they aren’t quite the dominant group of earlier in the season. DeGrom has the stuff to slow down any hitter, but the absence of Judge and Sanchez will make life easier on him in this one.

Free MLB ATS Picks

DeGrom is a dominant hurler but this is a tough matchup and the Yankees figure to scratch across a run or two during his start. If the game is close once the bullpens take over, the Yankees will be in good shape. This will follow a similar pattern as DeGrom should pitch well but end up with a no-decision as the Yankees come away with the win in MLB gambling.

MLB ATS Pick: Yankees 4, Mets 3

Soccer-Premier League- Manchester United opens the season with a win

It was the perfect start to the new Premier League for Manchester United as they secured a 2-1 victory over Leicester at Old Trafford.

The match got off to the perfect start as Paul Pogba netted from the penalty spot after just two minutes following a handball in the box.

United continue to battle and would eventually double their lead when Luke Shaw drilled a low effort into the net to secure his first ever senior goal. However, Mourinho’s side were sent a late scare when Jamie Vardy headed in deep into injury time.

Speaking after the match Pogba spoke about the difficult return to club football, but praised his teammates for their efforts: “I didn’t have any pre-season game, I came back on Monday. It was very hard and difficult for the legs and stamina. But we played very well.”

NFL-Preseason- Thursday games preview

Preseason NFL betting carries an awful reputation since it’s easy to dismiss games that don’t count in the standings. That’s short-sighted.

Every team carries goals into their games and there are often instances where it’s clear that one team will be the aggressor. There are games where it becomes clear going in whether teams are looking to test their offense or put very little on display.

The Hall of Fame game saw the favored Ravens barely hold on over the Bears in Canton, failing to cover despite being in position to win most of the second half. In Week 1, we won’t see many starters, but there are plenty of angles worth considering. Here’s what I’m looking at as 30 of the NFL’s 32 teams take the field for the first time between today and Saturday:

Thursday, Aug. 9

Carolina at Buffalo (-3/34), 7 p.m. ET: The Bills have rotated Nathan Peterman and A.J. McCarron with the first-team offense, so No. 7 pick Josh Allen will play a significant role here with the third team likely deciding the outcome. McCarron and Peterman are looking to impress new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who also has to find receivers he can trust outside of Kelvin Benjamin. Buffalo traded for Corey Coleman this week and got him some practice time, but it remains to be seen if he has any role in this one. It definitely looks like Sean McDermott’s defense, coordinated by veteran Leslie Frazier, is far ahead of the Bills’ offense. Buffalo lost its first three preseason games under McDermott in his first season as head coach.

McDermott was Ron Rivera’s defensive coordinator until 2016, so he knows exactly how his former boss approaches the preseason opener since he’s been a part of more wins than losses in that role. With Norv Turner coming out of retirement to run the offense from the press box and Eric Washington elevated to defensive coordinator to replace current Cardinals head coach Steve Wilks, there is new leadership in place. Cam Newton, called out by former teammate Benjamin for his lack of accuracy, is expected to get at least a series before giving way to Garrett Gilbert, Taylor Henicke and rookie Kyle Allen. Carolina has had awful luck with injuries along its offensive line in camp, so guys who would’ve potentially had little shot at making the team will now be showing out with roster spots on the line.

Chicago at Cincinnati (-2/35.5), 7 p.m. ET: Matt Nagy debuted as head coach of the Bears in the 17-16 Hall of Fame game loss, but since the baseball cap stayed on second-year QB Mitch Trubisky, it’s this next Ohio-based contest, 200 miles southwest of Canton, that truly counts. Nagy hadn’t divulged how long he intended to play Trubisky entering Wednesday but has seen him do his best work of a turnover-filled camp this week, demonstrating an improved grasp on his offense and receivers. Chicago should have an edge on the Bengals considering most of their players have gotten their feet wet and backups Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray each threw for touchdowns, but the Ravens did push the ball down the field against a Bears defense that remains without unsigned top pick Roquan Smith.

While Nagy comes off his first preseason game running his own program, Marvin Lewis will coach in his 62nd, entering his 16th season at 30-31 in exhibitions. This season’s big wrinkles are the addition of defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, who was highly coveted once the Lions passed on promoting him to head coach. He’s got a chance to put a special group together, so this will be an interesting opener for them and could set up some must-watch football against Trubisky and a young Bears first-team offense even though linebacker Vontaze Burfict won’t play. Offensively, snapping issues were a concern in the Bengals’ simulated game over the weekend since first-round pick Billy Price is struggling, so that’s something to be aware of if you’re thinking of backing host Cincinnati, who won’t play at home again until the meaningless fourth preseason game.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-1.5/34), 7 p.m. ET: Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill hopes to make his competitive return after tearing his ACL barely a year ago. With Jay Cutler not back, there’s no quarterback controversy despite the acquisition of Brock Osweiler and Bryce Petty, who are looking to push holdover David Fales for the No. 2 spot. Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston won’t play for the first three regular-season games but is expected to get work in behind Week 1 starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Neither may play much given the team’s lack of depth on the offensive line with Ryan Griffin and rookie Austin Allen expected to finish up. It’s going to be a hot humid night, but thunderstorms should clear out of the area which means rain won’t be a factor.

Miami’s Ryan Tannehill hopes to make his competitive return after tearing his ACL barely a year ago. With Jay Cutler not back, there’s no quarterback controversy despite the acquisition of Brock Osweiler and Bryce Petty, who are looking to push holdover David Fales for the No. 2 spot. Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston won’t play for the first three regular-season games but is expected to get work in behind Week 1 starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Neither may play much given the team’s lack of depth on the offensive line with Ryan Griffin and rookie Austin Allen expected to finish up. It’s going to be a hot humid night, but thunderstorms should clear out of the area which means rain won’t be a factor.

Cleveland (-1/35) at N.Y. Giants, 7 p.m. ET: Tyrod Taylor will start ahead of Baker Mayfield in the regular-season opener and in this visit to Met Life Stadium, but the No. 1 pick will get more snaps than probably every other QB on the roster as Todd Haley gets his first crack at turning around the Browns offense in his first year as a coordinator under Hue Jackson. With Josh Gordon still away and Coleman traded, this is an opportunity for rookie Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins to continue making plays. Veteran Drew Stanton’s experience is a luxury most teams lack in their third-stringer, which should be an advantage. The Browns were perfect last preseason.

Pat Shurmur begins his tenure as New York’s coach knowing he can’t flop quite as spectacularly as predecessor Ben McAdoo, who was replaced by Steve Spagnolo for the final month of action. Both are gone. James Bettcher will run the defense after doing it in Arizona over the last three years. Shurmur will lean on Mike Shula to help with the offense, but he’s calling plays. No determinations have been made about throwing Eli Manning, Odell Beckham, Jr. or top pick Saquon Barkley out there. Manning probably won’t play but has said he’d like more time than usual to get used to the new offense. Davis Webb, rookie Kyle Lauletta and Alex Tanney will see the bulk of the snaps.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-3/33), 7 p.m. ET: The Steelers and Eagles last got together in 2016 in the preseason and Mike Tomlin’s team lost at home 17-0, but don’t expect him to be any more invested than he typically is this time of year over that embarrassment or because his Pennsylvania neighbors finally won a Super Bowl. He doesn’t put much importance on exhibition games and went 3-14 from 2013-16 before a 3-1 finish last season. He’s only won five of 13 career preseason openers and won’t play Ben Roethlisberger or many of his other veterans, ruling out Antonio Brown and staying true to his philosophy regarding this time of year despite the speculation his seat is warming up. There’s been no rotation set, but rookie Mason Rudolph will join veteran backups Landry Jones and Josh Dobbs. Running back James Conner has been the most impressive back with Le’Veon Bell away and could get lots of work.

The Eagles take the field as reigning champs for the first time but probably won’t have Carson Wentz back in the mix at all this preseason. Nick Foles will be prepped to start Week 1 but won’t participate here, which means Nate Sudfeld and Joe Callahan will get all the snaps. It would be surprising to see the team’s top receivers work, but their young players have gotten a lot of reps and welcomed in a crowd of over 40.000 to watch practice over the weekend, an experience likely to serve Philadelphia well here. Doug Pederson has won six of eight preseason games and is working with a new coordinator in Mike Groh since Frank Reich took the Colts’ head job.

New Orleans at Jacksonville (-2.5/34.5), 7 p.m. ET: Sean Payton has coached his team to losses in 10 of his last 12 exhibition games and isn’t expected to expose Drew Brees for even a drive here. While Tom Savage will likely start, Taysom Hill and rookie J.T. Barrett should get the bulk of the work and to decide this game. Neither guy should be able to hurt an NFL defense with their arm but can do significant damage with their legs. One rookie worth watching is wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith (UCF), who has been the talk of camp, which is saying something given the talent available on this roster.

After last year’s huge breakthrough where they fell a fourth-quarter collapse short of a Super Bowl berth, the Jaguars will deal with a target on their backs this season. Doug Marrone returns both of his coordinators and has been pleasantly surprised by a more comfortable Blake Bortles settling in early. At this time last season, it looked like his days as Jacksonville’s starting QB were numbered. Chad Henne was closing in and Bortles played poorly in an exhibition game where he was meant to erase all doubt. Although we should see Bortles start here, backups Cody Kessler and Tanner Lee, a rookie from Nebraska who started at Tulane, will play most of this one. The Jags are hoping for solid play out of unheralded guys who have shined thus far like rookie WR D.J. Chark and running back Brandon Wilds.

L.A. Rams at Baltimore (-3/36), 7:30 p.m. ET: Coaching boy wonder Sean McVay won his first two preseason games last year and then went on to post an 11-5 regular-season record, winning the NFC West. Since the Rams are so early into a preseason where McVay is implementing new wrinkles and installing a lot of offense that wasn’t in the playbook last season. QB Jared Goff played and most of the starters participated, but that isn’t expected to be the case in this first contest. Star DT Aaron Donald remains away from the team and the Rams got a lot of work against the Ravens in joint practices this week, so don’t expect much from them in this game. Sean Mannion, Brandon Allen and rookie Luis Perez, the Harlon Hill Trophy winner from D-II champion Texas A&M-Commerce, will look to show what they can do.

The Ravens escaped after turning away a Chicago two-point conversion in their Hall of Fame game win last Thursday, but Lamar Jackson didn’t exactly light it up after a sharp debut from Robert Griffin III. Since John Harbaugh is one of the NFL’s top coaches in the preseason (29-12, .707) and he’s throwing Joe Flacco in the mix for a drive or two, Baltimore has gone from a 1-point favorite to laying the full three at home. There are a few concerns since the offensive line looked to have protection issues against the Bears and struggled in the joint practices against the Rams, but you can understand why they’re favored here with Goff sitting out and most of their roster already owning a game under their belts.

Washington at New England (-3/37.5), 7:30 p.m. ET: It’s Alex Smith time in D.C., which may not excite most of you but has Skins Nation filled with butterflies. He’ll play at least a series to get his feet wet before Colt McCoy and Kevin Hogan take over. Washington hosts its next two contests, so the team can create some positive momentum with a solid showing if they’re prepared to hit the ground running. There’s healthy competition at running back and receiver, so this is a team to keep an eye on since Jay Gruden will want to get a look at all his toys and generate confidence for his group in an effort to flush last year’s disappointment. Being matched up against the defending champion Patriots, who Gruden beat 23-6 in his first preseason game as head coach back in ’14, could be enough motivation to keep young guys hungry and motivated on the road.

Bill Belichick has more uncertainty surrounding his team that any point in the past five-plus years. Former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will coach the Lions on Friday, so linebackers coach Brian Flores will begin his tenure as the Pats’ defensive playcaller under the same system his predecessor worked with. Because much pressure isn’t applied on the quarterback and the scheme is so vanilla this time of year, New England surrendered 31.5 points last preseason after allowing 19.5 points the year before. Tom Brady won’t play this one, which means we should see Brian Hoyer start and rookie Danny Etling under center for most of the evening. It’s not exactly a mystery that he’s no Jimmy Garoppolo or even Jacoby Brissett.

Tennessee at Green Bay (PK/34.5), 8 p.m. ET: New coach Mike Vrabel has been around the block with this football thing, crossing paths with coaching legends on all levels, so there’s no doubt he’s prepared for his first game in the head seat. Veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees will join him in attempting to put together a stout defense, so they might be ahead of the offense although early word is new coordinator Matt LaFleur has done a nice job keeping them off-balance. That’s easier to do with Marcus Mariota than, say, rookie Luke Falk, who will likely get the bulk of the action after taking over for second-stringer Blaine Gabbert. LaFleur didn’t call plays in L.A. with the Rams as their OC last season and will want to get up to speed in games, but the next two will offer far more ideal circumstances to do so than this one should, especially on the road at Lambeau.

Cheeseheads likely won’t see Aaron Rodgers doing anything other than holding a clipboard since he hasn’t played in a preseason opener since 2015, but there will still be plenty to look at. There’s a new offense that Mike McCarthy and new coordinator Joe Philbin are putting in place, not to mention a first glance at the Mike Pettine-led defense since the former Browns head coach is back doing what he does best. Brett Hundley is hoping to hold off DeShone Kizer, while a young receiving corps that Rodgers chewed out publicly this week hopes to impress when the lights come on. McCarthy has won seven of nine exhibitions, seven of eight preseason games at Lambeau and hasn’t lost an opener since 2014. The Pack has been working out against the Titans all week, so players will be familiar with one another.

Houston at Kansas City (-2.5/34), 8:30 p.m. ET: We’re expecting to see Deshaun Watson. Having made a speedy recovery after tearing an ACL to spoil what was quickly becoming a special rookie season, the standout QB is expected to make a cameo for Bill O’Brien before giving way to backups Brandon Weeden, Joe Webb and Stephen Morris, each of whom have an NFL start under their belt. O’Brien has liked how his offensive line has improved and was pleased with how camp unfolded. It might be one big party if J.J. Watt is unleashed since the word is he’s ready to play if the Texans will let him. With Vrabel hired by Tennessee, Romeo Crennel will assume defensive coordinator duties once again, so the system will be similar. Houston was perfect in the ’16 preseason but went just 1-2 last year in an August sabotaged by Hurricane Harvey.

This is the biggest preseason Andy Reid has had in Kansas City, more important than even the first back in 2013, when he and then-49ers import Alex Smith got together in the hopes of growing together and building a winner. Smith’s time produced success, but Reid is looking for titles in handing the reins to second-year pro Patrick Mahomes, whose arm talent can get everyone a ring. He’s certain to give Reid his share of headaches too and started early by opening camp with a flurry of turnovers, but the 22-year-old has been given a license to test out the offense. That will continue tonight at muggy Arrowhead, but it remains to be seen how long he plays before giving way to Chad Henne, Matt McGloin and potentially, rookie Chase Litton. Reid has won nine of 20 openers and is 36-40 in exhibitions. There were at least 36 points scored in all of Kansas City’s preseason games last season.

Dallas at San Francisco (-3.5/35), 10 p.m. ET DAL-SF Jason Garrett has been put on notice that it’s playoffs or pink slip. Dez Bryant has been discarded. Giant clouds aren’t encircling Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys were back in Oxnard for training camp and have a talented group in place, talking Super Bowl despite failing to make the playoffs again last season. Dak Prescott may get int there for a series, but this matchup with San Francisco will feature Cooper Rush before giving way to rookies Mike White (WKU) and Dalton Sturm (UTSA), both products of Conference USA. We’ll get a good look at Dallas’ depth here since most starters won’t participate. Payton is 23-27 in preseason action and went winless in ’15 and ’16.

Having Jimmy Garoppolo in place for the first time after offering a preview of his capabilities has ramped up the intensity and expectations in Santa Clara. Kyle Shanahan has his quarterback and can make better use of all of his personnel as a result, so it’s no surprise he’s going to get an immediate look at what he’s got on the roster by playing his starters for at least a series. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them out there a full quarter. C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens, both of whom were in the program last year, will wrap up the action and it’s likely that we’ll see a strong effort since the 49ers won’t return home until the fourth and final preseason contest.

Indianapolis at Seattle (-2/35), 10 p.m. ET: Andrew Luck hasn’t taken a snap in a game since Jan. 1 of ’17, so all eyes will be on his return. New head coach Frank Reich’s debut takes a backseat as a result, but it’s not likely that we’ll see much of Indianapolis’ franchise quarterback dropping back to pass since LT Anthony Castonzo was lost to a hamstring issue that will make life more difficult for everyone else this month. Luck will get a quarter, backed by Jacoby Brissett, which means that the Colts will have a chance to test the Seahawks’ defense with their best before giving way to Phillip Walker and Brad Kaaya to split the second half. The Legion of Boom is no more, but Seattle is still going to be tough at home with a loud crowd expected, creating additional obstacles for Reich’s new offensive coordinator, Nick Sirianni, who has worked under Frank Reich and with the Chargers under Mike McCoy and Anthony Lynn. Reich is his mentor, so this will be the beginning of his big break.

The Seahawks have been as reliable a team worth backing this time of year as there’s been since 2012, riding Pete Carroll’s competitive streak and a homefield edge that has shown up despite the games not counting due to the atmosphere at Century Link Field. Seattle has had three perfect preseason runs in that span and will be aggressively carving out what is likely to be a new identity given the loss of leaders like Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, who continues to hold out. Kam Chancellor is unable to perform, so defensive backs must step up and all eyes will be on rookie Shaquem Griffin and brother Shaquill, who stepped up some last year. There’s a new defensive coordinator in Ken Norton, Jr. who will look to help Carroll figure out new wrinkles. The offense will be new as well since Brian Schottenheimer and a new staff are replacing mainstays Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable. It remains to be seen if we’ll see Russell Wilson for even a series but there is a stable of talented running backs to rotate through, so look for a heavy emphasis on the ground game. Rookie Alex McGough out of Florida International (C-USA, Baby!) will likely be on the field at winning time, so keep that in mind if you’re laying the two-spot.

MLB-Thursday game of the day – Mariners at Astros betting preview

MLB Baseball Odds – Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

The Seattle Mariners are fading fast, and if they don’t turn it around, playoff hopes are going to disappear. Seattle looked to be in good shape to claim the second wild card spot in the American League several weeks ago but the Athletics have zoomed past them. The Mariners need to string together some wins but get a tough matchup next time out against the Houston Astros.

The Astros are leading the American League West and are the defending World Series champions. They would normally be big home favorites in this one but they are missing some key bats, which gives the Mariners a chance at pulling off the upset.

Houston is in good shape to win the division but it’s not a done deal quite yet as it needs to continue winning while dealing with some notable injuries. Seattle needs this victory even more but will have to knock around one of the Cy Young leading contenders in MLB wagering.

This MLB baseball game between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners will be held at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas at 7 p.m ET on Thursday, August 9th.

Odds Analysis

The Mariners have a record of 65-50 on the season but have a negative-29 run-differential, which is not a good sign for the rest of the way. Seattle has gone 29-26 on the road this year and hopes to pick up another win in this one but it won’t be easy.

The Astros are 73-42 overall, which is the second-best record in the major leagues behind the Red Sox. Houston is 32-24 at home this season, which is not as good as its record on the road but is still solid.

The scoring total could be low as two standout pitchers face off on the mound.

Probable Pitchers

The Astros will send veteran right-hander Justin Verlander to the hill. The ace comes into this game with an ERA of 2.19 and a record of 11-6. The 35-year-old captured his latest win against the Dodgers on August 3rd. He pitched 7.2 innings in that game, allowing four hits and one run while striking out 14. Verlander is among the American League leaders in nearly every pitching category and hopes to continue his fantastic season with another strong outing.

The Mariners plan to counter with talented left-hander James Paxton. He has a record of 9-5 with an ERA of 3.51 and has had his way against the Astros this season. In his most recent showing against Houston on July 30th, Paxton pitched seven innings and allowed three runs and no hits in a 2-0 shutout. He also captured two more wins against the Astros this year, only allowing two runs in the three previous matchups.

Injury Update

The Astros are going to be without their three best position players in this matchup due to injury. Shortstop Carlos Correa is expected to return from a back injury this weekend but is not expected to be available for this game. Jose Altuve and George Springer are still sidelined with knee and thumb injuries, respectively.

All three are All-Star caliber players and are a big reason why the team won last year’s championship. Houston has depth so it can stay afloat without them but does not have the same high ceiling.

Free MLB ATS Picks

The absence of so many key offensive pieces is a blow to the Astros, but they are at home and sending a dominant pitcher to the mound. Houston has still won games without its star trio and will pick up another one here.

The loss will be another blow to Seattle’s sinking playoff chances in MLB gambling.

MLB ATS Pick: Astros 4, Mariners 2

MLB-Wednesday night-Game of the day preview

Tuesday MLB Best Bet
Philadelphia vs Boston

The Phillies and Red Sox wrap up a brief two-game set tonight after Boston ended up taking the opener 2-1 in extra innings last night. Neither team could really find a way to solve the opposing starter as both Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Boston’s David Price went eight innings apiece, as despite 17 hits combined, neither side could really string a few of them together. Will that change tonight with Jake Arrieta and Drew Pomeranz squaring off?

Considering last night’s game was 2-1, seeing a total of 10 tonight was a bit jarring initially, but it speaks to the hitter-friendly Fenway Park they are in tonight, and the recent form of both pitchers.

Philadelphia’s Jake Arrieta has been receiving a lot of praise for being that guy who was brought over for some veteran leadership and helped propel the Phillies ahead of schedule in their rebuild, but it’s tough to argue that Arrieta is a big reason why the Phillies have had success overall given his middling numbers on the year.

Arrieta’s 3.45 ERA and 8-6 SU record aren’t bad by any means, but when you’ve allowed more runs on average per start (4.8) compared to what you are getting in support (4.2) like Arrieta has this year, chances are you’ve been a bit lucky in winning more games than you’ve lost. Considering this potent Boston lineup has been held to three runs or less in three of their last five games, chances are we may see a rather short night for Arrieta. Yet, even if that ends up being the case, I’m not really that excited to be backing Boston either as Drew Pomeranz has been awful the last few times he’s taken the hill.

Pomeranz has a 9.00 ERA over his last three starts as he’s given up 18 hits in just 13 IP during that time. Take it back a start or two further and Pomeranz has only pitched five full innings once in his last five starts and has seen the opposition score at least three runs against him in nine of his last 10 starts. Those are just horrific numbers that have to get you off any consideration of a Boston ML play. Now obviously, Pomeranz’s last start was his first in almost two months after a DL stint, but the time away really didn’t solve anything from a “results on the field” perspective and until that changes, I’ve got to go with the poor pitching numbers we’ve seen from him all year.

However, those numbers that Pomeranz is sporting are spectacular from the lens of an ‘over’ play on tonight’s total, even if 10 does seem high after a 2-1 contest last night. For one, this number is this high for any number of reasons as oddsmakers could believe Pomeranz’s struggles are far from solved, Arrieta is likely to be in tough tonight, Boston’s bats finally wake up and explode all at once, or a little bit of everything and then some.

Secondly, five of Arrieta’s seven career starts against Boston have cashed ‘over’ tickets, including a trip to Fenway last year as a member of the Cubs when he was shelled for 10 hits and five runs in just 4.1 IP of an eventual 5-4 Boston win. This Red Sox lineup has only gotten exponentially more dangerous than last year’s version, and with Arrieta already having plenty of horrible memories in this stadium, I think we do see one of the better versions of Boston’s attack show up in spades tonight.

And the fact is, Boston will probably need one of their better offensive attacks to show up tonight just to have a chance to win with Pomeranz on the hill. His time on the DL really didn’t seem to solve much of anything other than get him “healthier,” and in four career starts against this Philadelphia organization, Pomeranz has never beaten them. And most of those starts came back when the Phillies were really bad too.

So, after getting away from the initial jarring feeling from this total being 10, as I started to look deeper and deeper into this game, I couldn’t help but wonder why it wasn’t actually a shade higher. Both offenses are more than capable of putting up multiple crooked numbers against each respective starter, and chances are we could see last year’s total score surpassed by the time the 1st inning’s done. I expect both teams to trade crooked numbers back-and-forth with one another, with possibly the team that’s able to break away with the biggest one in the middle innings being the one to hold on and win.