Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will be the 54th installment of the big game on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020 from Miami Gardens, Florida
Before you start handicapping the matchup and prop wagers, you should check 54 betting angles and trends that our VegasInsider.com staff have uncovered for this year’s Super Bowl.
1 – Patrick Mahomes is the first QB from a Big 12 school to start a Super Bowl. Also, Mahomes is the first QB from a Texas university (Texas Tech) to start a Super Bowl.
2 – Twice in Super Bowl history a team has been held without a touchdown. The Dolphins (Super Bowl VI) and Rams (Super Bowl LIII) each scored exactly three points in losses, but no team has ever been shut out in the Super Bowl.
3 – Three times an AFC West team has been listed as a favorite in the Super Bowl and has lost outright. The Broncos twice (Super Bowl XXII and XLVIII) and Raiders (Super Bowl XXVII). Those teams lost by 35, 27, and 32 in those defeats.
4 – The last four Super Bowls played in an outdoor stadium have seen the underdog cash, including three outright wins. The Broncos (L), Seahawks (XLVIII), and Saints (XLIV) each grabbed the victory in the underdog role in these contests played in a non-domed stadium.
5 – The 49ers have won five Super Bowl titles in franchise history. A victory against the Chiefs would tie the Patriots and Steelers for the most Super Bowl titles (6) in NFL history.
6 – There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976. The 2005 classic (See 39 below) featured the Eagles, who were coached the current boss in KC – Andy Reid.
7 – The 49ers are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history. San Francisco has won five of its first six Super Bowls, but are listed in the underdog role for the first time.
8 – The Chiefs had eight games with a total of 50 or higher. Kansas City cashed the ‘over’ five times in those contests, with only one coming away from Arrowhead Stadium at Detroit in a 34-30 win in Week 4.
9 – This will be the ninth Super Bowl television broadcast produced by FOX and the sixth for the announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. In the first eight Super Bowls on the network, the AFC-NFC and Favorite-Underdog results have split at 4-4 while the ‘over’ is 5-3.
10 – There have been 10 Super Bowls played in Miami and San Francisco has played in two of them – beating Cincinnati 20-16 in 1989 (XXIII) before routing San Diego 49-26 in 1995 (XXIX).
11 – This is the 11th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the 10 Super Bowls involving a total of 50 or more, including last season’s 13-3 win by New England over Los Angeles on a 56 total.
12 – Kansas City stunned Minnesota 23-7 in Super Bowl IV, winning outright as a 12-point underdog. Double-digit underdogs have gone 5-9 straight up in the NFL finale but we haven’t seen a spread this high since 2008 when the Giants stunned the Patriots 17-14 in SB XLII.
13 – The 49ers played four games in the Eastern Time Zone this season and the defense traveled well, surrendering 13.5 points per game (PPG) while going 3-1. The lone loss was a 20-17 decision at Baltimore in Week 13. Kansas City went 3-0 when traveling East and it averaged 32.3 PPG.
14 – Amount of touchdown passes Mahomes has thrown against NFC West opponents in his career. Three of those 14 touchdowns came against San Francisco in a 38-27 home victory in 2018.
15 – Only one player has won the Super Bowl MVP wearing the jersey number 15, which was Packers’ quarterback Bart Starr in each of the first two Super Bowl victories. Mahomes is the favorite to capture the award at DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only).
Prior to last year’s 13-3 snooze-fest in Super Bowl 53 between the Patriots and Rams, the NFL finale had watched the ‘over’ cash in five of the previous six games.
For this year’s Super Bowl 54 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, the oddsmakers are expecting fireworks and the betting public is buying that narrative.
After the matchup was set on Sunday Jan. 19, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 51 ½ and that total has been pushed up to 54 ½ as of Friday before the Super Bowl. The betting trends are leaning heavily to the ‘over’ and if that connects, the profits for the bookmakers will be cut drastically regardless of the 49ers or Chiefs winnings.
While many bettors love cheering points, the total results for the Super Bowl have had nice back-and-forth results. Through the first 53 Super Bowls with listed totals, the ‘over’ owns a slight 27-25 edge.