The Broncos (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) began the season at 2-0, but have dropped three of their last four games. Denver’s offense put up 42 points in a Week 2 blowout of Dallas, but the Broncos have scored a total of 42 points in the past four games combined. Vance Joseph’s squad was shut out by the Chargers last Sunday, 21-0 in Los Angeles as one-point favorites. Denver’s offense turned the ball over three times, including a pair of fumbles, while barely breaking the 250-yeard mark.
Denver’s defense wasn’t too bad by allowing Los Angeles to gain 242 yards of offense, but the Chargers scored on two big plays, a 65-yard punt return for a score by Travis Benjamin and Philip Rivers hitting Benjamin on a 42-yard touchdown strike in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Trevor Siemian started the season with six touchdown passes and two interceptions in the first two victories, but the former Northwestern standout has nearly flipped those numbers by throwing only two touchdowns and getting picked off five times.
The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) suffered their second consecutive defeat following a 5-0 start, as Kansas City lost in the final seconds at Oakland, 31-30. Kansas City led, 30-24 until Derek Carr hooked up with Michael Crabtree in the corner of the end zone to end Oakland’s four-game losing streak and give the Chiefs their first two-game skid since October 2015. The Chiefs connected on a pair of 60+ yard touchdown passes as Alex Smith hit Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson, but Carr lit up the Kansas City defense for 417 yards and three touchdowns.
Rookie of the Year candidate Kareem Hunt was held out of the end zone for the fourth straight game, but managed to rack up over 100 all-purpose yards for the seventh time this season. Following that loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-1 in AFC West play, while suffering their first ATS defeat away from Arrowhead Stadium in four tries this season.
The Chiefs own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL at Arrowhead Stadium, while winning two of three home contests this season. Kansas City has won seven of its last nine home games against AFC West foes since 2014, but both of those losses came to Denver. Although the Chiefs ripped the Broncos last December, 33-10, Kansas City won’t forget allowing 14 unanswered points in the final minute of a 31-24 setback in 2015 to Denver.
The Broncos haven’t been able to cash in away from Sports Authority Field recently by posting a 2-6 SU/ATS record since Week 6 of last season. In this stretch, Denver owns a 1-3 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog, while being listed in this role for the first time this season after outright losses as an away favorite at Buffalo and Los Angeles.
Kansas City swept Denver last season for the first time since 2000 with two dramatically different results. The Chiefs tied the Broncos in the first matchup in Denver with a Smith touchdown pass to Hill in the final seconds, followed by a two-point conversion. The teams would exchange field goals in overtime before Cairo Santos knocked in the game-winning field goal with two seconds left for a 30-27 victory as 3 ½-point favorites.
The second meeting at Arrowhead Stadium was an early blowout as the Chiefs scored 21 first quarter points highlighted by a 70-yard touchdown and an 80-yard touchdown. Kansas City rushed for 238 yards in a 33-10 rout to easily cash as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Chiefs have won three straight matchups with the Broncos after losing seven consecutive games with Denver from 2012 through 2015.
Favorites have rolled under the Monday night lights the last five weeks by picking up victories, while covering four times. The last two weeks have burned the sports books with the Favorite-Over combination, including Philadelphia’s victory over Washington last Monday. Kansas City is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season as the Chiefs pulled away from the Redskins, 29-20 in Week 4 as 6 ½-point favorites. Denver has won three consecutive Monday nighters, including a 24-21 home victory in Week 1 over Los Angeles.
The Broncos began the season with three consecutive OVERS before finishing UNDER the total in their last three contests. Denver has cashed the UNDER in six of its past nine away from Sports Authority Field, while scoring 16 points or less in its last four road contests. Kansas City’s offense has helped the OVER cash in five of seven games, although the OVER barely cashed in two home wins over Philadelphia and Washington, while finishing UNDER the total in its last contest at Arrowhead Stadium in a Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh.