Memphis (20-13 SU, 17-16 ATS) at Boston (18-13 SU, 17-13-1 ATS)
These teams met last Monday in Memphis and Boston came away with a 112-109 overtime win as a 2 ½-point road favorite. The Celtics have now won and covered three of the last four versus the Grizzlies and they’re favored (-6 ½) in Tuesday’s matchup.
Even though Boston has won and covered five of its last six, you could be hesitant to back the club at home based on what we’ve seen this season. The Celtics are 6-6 at TD Garden and that includes a 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS mark as home favorites. Some pundits believe Boston is a contender but I look at them as a bully who wins games against sub .500 teams (13-5) and fails to get over the hump against elite opponents (5-8).
Despite getting run 112-102 at Orlando last night, Memphis owns a winning road record (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) this season. For those of you believing fatigue will be a factor, the Grizzlies are 8-0 (7-1 ATS) this season when playing on no rest and the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in those games.
Memphis has gone 8-8 versus the Eastern Conference while Boston has struggle to a 4-8 mark against foes from the Western Conference which includes a 3-4 mark at home.
Oklahoma City (19-12 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) at Miami (10-21 SU, 16-15 ATS)
The Thunder dropped the Heat 97-85 as 5 ½-point home favorites in the first meeting this season on Nov. 7 and Oklahoma City has been installed as a short road ‘chalk’ (-2 ½) in the rematch.
Oklahoma City has won and covered three straight and four of its last five games and the one loss came by two points at home to Atlanta. The Thunder offense is averaging 114.4 points per game over this span with the majority of the damage coming from All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook, who is averaging a triple-double (31.7 points, 10.9 assists, 10.4 rebounds) this season.
Miami has struggled to a 5-11 record at home and that includes a 2-8 mark (4-6 ATS) when catching points. The Heat haven’t played since Friday when they lost a 91-87 decision at New Orleans, which dropped their record to 5-8 (8-5 ATS) against teams from the West.
The expectations for OKC have obviously been lowered this season with the loss of Kevin Durant yet the club still remains a solid wager against the NBA minnows. The Thunder are 14-7 versus teams below .500 and they’ve gone 4-1 both SU and ATS when listed as road favorites this season.
The total on this game opened 205 and was steamed up to 206 early Tuesday morning. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last four encounters between the pair and OKC has been a solid ‘under’ wager (8-4-1) as a visitor.
NBATV will provide national coverage of this game at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Houston (23-9 SU, 21-11 ATS) at Dallas (9-22 SU, 14-17 ATS)
The Rockets have been installed as six-point road favorites for this matchup and it’s hard to make a case for the home squad unless you’re playing the contrarian angle. Houston hasn’t swept a season series from Dallas since 1998 but can do so tonight when it visits American Airlines Center. The Rockets have gone 2-1 ATS in the first three wins and that includes a 106-98 victory in Dallas on Oct. 28 as two-point road favorites.
Both clubs played on Monday and that factor could have you leaning to the favorite as well knowing Houston (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) has thrived on zero days rest while Dallas is winless (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) in back-to-back spots.
Despite being short-handed to injuries all season, the Mavericks have played hard for head coach Rick Carlisle and are a respectable 5-8 SU and 6-7 ATS as home ‘dogs. Dallas has won three of its last four in this role and the defense (92.3 PPG) has been great in those matchups.
Houston’s pace dictates larger totals but Tuesday’s number (208 ½) is low for its standards because the Mavericks play slow, ranked 29th in shots per game (81.9). The ‘under’ cashed in the first three meetings between the pair this season.
Utah (18-13 SU, 15-15-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (12-22 SU, 15-18-1 ATS)
Similar to Boston and OKC, the Jazz have been inconsistent against winning teams (5-8) this season and better versus the cellar dwellers (13-5). The Lakers fall into the latter and that’s why they’re catching five points at home on Tuesday.
Los Angeles snapped a four-game losing skid on Christmas Day with a 111-102 victory over the short-handed Clippers. That victory was just their second in the last 14 games and it’s hard to imagine a victory on Tuesday knowing the club is 3-8 SU off a win this season.
Before you run to the counter and bang the Jazz, be aware that they’ve dropped three straight games albeit two of them came to upper echelon teams in Golden State and Toronto. Utah has beaten the Lakers twice already this season, which includes a 107-101 win on Dec. 5 as a 4 ½-point road favorite.
Going back to the bully angle, Utah has delivered in a big way when installed as a road favorite this season. The club is a perfect 7-0 both SU and ATS with four of the wins coming by double digits. The offense is averaging 101.9 PPG in those situations and that’s helped produced a 6-1 ‘over’ record.
Even though Utah plays the slowest pace (77.2 shots per game) and owns the best scoring defense (95.2 PPG) in the league, the team has watched the ‘over’ go 17-14 this season. The Jazz have only had seven totals close in the 200s and the ‘over’ went 4-3. Tonight’s number is hovering around 204 and the Lakers have been a great ‘over’ bet (10-3-1) at home this season.