2012 NBA Betting – Humbled Suns, Listless Raptors Create A Close Contest

The Phoenix Suns got humiliated on Wednesday night by 40 points. The Toronto Raptors lost that same night by only 21. Two bad teams, though, could play a razor-close game on Friday.

Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors – Friday, November 30

Sport betting line: no line

Why Phoenix Will Win

With an online horse betting guru or a college football betting expert, the calculus of a given event can sometimes depend not on the excellence of the favored athlete or team, but on the lack of excellence in the competition. Sometimes, a horse race involves a weak field, one in which you’re not necessarily picking the best horse, but the horse with the fewest weaknesses and the smallest, least consequential flaws. When you bet on a college football game, you will often make that play not because you have such explicit trust in the team you’re betting on, but because you really don’t trust the team you’re betting against. In other words, some bets are positive – they exist when you have confidence in the winner. Other bets are negative – in these bets, you think that you can predict the failure of the loser. This is just such a game.

Phoenix played its worst game of the season on Wednesday night, losing to the Detroit Pistons by a 117-77 margin. The betting rationale for the Suns in this game is simple: Phoenix can’t play any more poorly, so the Suns will therefore be better. Only by adjusted standards will the Suns improve, but yet the likelihood of improvement itself will enable Phoenix to stay close to Toronto for four quarters and possibly steal this game in the final seconds of regulation.

The Suns can’t compete with a lot of teams, but they can engage the Raptors on even terms. Toronto is 3-13, and the Raptors are 27th in the NBA in team defense, allowing 101.5 points per game. That Phoenix offense which scored just 77 points in Detroit on Wednesday should at least be able to hit 95 against Toronto.

Why Toronto Will Win

Online football betting students, in line with the explanation given above, would have ample reason to bet against Phoenix (not for Toronto, but against Phoenix…) in this game. If you think Toronto is bad on defense, Phoenix is worse. The Suns are 30th in the NBA at the defensive end of the floor, allowing 102.6 points per contest. Phoenix has also won just two road games this season and is in the midst of a grinding six-game trip that started in the East (Philadelphia), worked its way to the Midwest (Cleveland and Detroit), is now going to Toronto, and will then move to New York on Sunday and Memphis on Tuesday. The Suns are 1-2 on this trip and have not handled it particularly well. Toronto won’t win a lot of NBA games this season, but this is a really good opportunity for the Raptors.

Who Will Win?

The sense here is that Toronto will pounce on this chance to win a game. The Raptors aren’t playing well right now, but the Suns are playing even worse.

Click here to get more information on the latest basketball betting odds.

NBA Betting Pick: Toronto

 

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